Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6
Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl086749
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发表时间：
2020-05-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Vancoppenolle, Martin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Notz, Dirk;Doerr, Jakob;Vancoppenolle, Martin
我们研究了CMIP6对北极海冰面积和体积的模拟。我们发现，CMIP6模式产生了广泛的平均北极海冰面积，捕捉到了多模式集合扩散内的观测估计。与早先的CMIP实验相比，CMIP6多模式集合平均值提供了对9月北极海冰面积对给定的人为二氧化碳排放量和给定的全球变暖的敏感度的更现实的估计。尽管如此，大多数CMIP6模式未能同时模拟海冰面积和全球平均表面温度的合理演变。在绝大多数可用的CMIP6模拟中，北冰洋实际上变得没有海冰(海冰区域
We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea-ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea-ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea-ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea-ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea-ice free (sea-ice area