What Do Smoothed Earnings Tell Us about the Future
What Do Smoothed Earnings Tell Us about the Future
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平滑收益告诉我们什么关于未来的事情
DOI：
10.11640/tjar.2.2012_1
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
M. Nakano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yusuke Takasu;M. Nakano
本研究分析了收入平滑行为的信息含量，特别是收入平滑行为作为未来绩效信号的作用。平稳的收益告诉我们关于未来的什么？为了回答这一研究问题，本文在以往两篇调查论文的基础上，对盈余持续性和股利政策进行了研究。这两个问题(盈利持续性和股利政策)是本研究的重点，基于日本经理人对收入平滑动机问题的回答。这篇论文提供了两个新的证据。第一，前期收益平滑与未来收益持续性正相关。其次，即使我们控制了过去的股利政策、基本面因素和公司治理因素，从事更平稳操作的公司未来也往往会支付更稳定的股息。这些结果表明，收入平滑行为很可能反映了未来收益表现的稳定性。收益平滑作为一种工具，管理者可以通过它来披露关于未来收益持续性和未来股利政策的私人信息。经验证据支持信息观点，而不是收入平滑的混乱观点，并揭示了平滑收益的光明面，而不是其阴暗面。
This study analyzes the information contents of income smoothing behavior, especially the role of income smoothing behavior as a signal of future performance. What do smoothed earnings tell us about the future? To answer this research question, this paper focuses on earnings persistence and dividend policy based on two prior survey papers. These two issues (earnings persistence and dividend policy) are the foci of this study, based on Japanese managers’ responses to questions regarding their motivation for income smoothing. This paper provides two new pieces of evidence. First, income smoothing in the previous period relates positively to future earnings persistence. Second, firms that engage in more smoothing tend to pay more stable dividends in the future, even when we control for past dividend policy, fundamental factors, and corporate governance factors. These results indicate that income smoothing behavior is likely to reflect future stability of earnings performance. Income smoothing acts as a vehicle through which managers can reveal private information about future earnings persistence and future dividend policy. The empirical evidence supports the information view rather than a garbling view of income smoothing, and sheds light on the bright side of smoothed earnings rather than its dark side.