Assessing the hydrological response from an ensemble of CMIP5 climate projections in the transition zone of the Atlantic region (Bay of Biscay)
Assessing the hydrological response from an ensemble of CMIP5 climate projections in the transition zone of the Atlantic region (Bay of Biscay)
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.02.029
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发表时间：
2017-05
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Maite Meaurio;A. Zabaleta;L. Boithias;Ane Miren Epelde;S. Sauvage;J. Sánchez-Pérez;R. Srinivasan;I. Antigüedad
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文献类型：
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作者：
Maite Meaurio;A. Zabaleta;L. Boithias;Ane Miren Epelde;S. Sauvage;J. Sánchez-Pérez;R. Srinivasan;I. Antigüedad
预计21世纪的气候变化将对集水区的水文响应产生影响。这些变化及其后果在过渡区是最不确定的。研究区域位于比斯开湾，位于欧洲大西洋区域的过渡地带，气候变化对水文的影响在这里鲜有人研究。为了解决这一稀缺问题，评估了气候变化对河流流量的水文影响。为此，进行了考虑16个气候情景的水文模拟，其中包括来自耦合模式相互比较项目(CMIP5)第五次报告的5个大气环流模式(GCM)、2个统计降尺度方法和2个典型浓度路径。对未来排放的预测(2011-2100年)分为三个30年的范围(2030年、2060年和2090年)，并将这些时间范围与基线(1961-2000年)进行了比较。结果表明，所使用的降尺度方法比GCM本身产生了更高的不确定度来源。此外，在所有各级使用的方法所固有的不确定性并不会同样地影响全年的结果。尽管存在这些不确定性，但20世纪90年代的总体趋势预测，秋季的季节性流量将减少约17%，春季的−减少16%，冬季的−减少11%，夏季的−减少7%。这些结果与大西洋地区(法国和伊比利亚半岛)的预测结果一致。还分析了极端流量的趋势：最显著的趋势是低流量的持续时间(天数)增加。从环境的角度来看，考虑到需要实现《水框架指令》(WFD)确立的目标，这将是未来水资源管理规划的一个重大挑战。
The climate changes projected for the 21st century will have consequences on the hydrological response of catchments. These changes, and their consequences, are most uncertain in the transition zones. The study area, in the Bay of Biscay, is located in the transition zone of the European Atlantic region, where hydrological impact of climate change was scarcely studied. In order to address this scarcity, the hydrological impacts of climate change on river discharge were assessed. To do so, a hydrological modelling was carried out considering 16 climate scenarios that include 5 General Circulation Models (GCM) from the 5th report of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), 2 statistical downscaling methods and 2 Representative Concentration Pathways. Projections for future discharge (2011–2100) were divided into three 30-year horizons (2030s, 2060s and 2090s) and a comparison was made between these time horizons and the baseline (1961–2000). The results show that the downscaling method used resulted in a higher source of uncertainty than GCM itself. In addition, the uncertainties inherent to the methods used at all the levels do not affect the results equally along the year. In spite of those uncertainties, general trends for the 2090s predict seasonal discharge decreases by around −17% in autumn, −16% in spring, −11% in winter and −7% in summer. These results are in line with those predicted for the Atlantic region (France and the Iberian Peninsula). Trends for extreme flows were also analysed: the most significant show an increase in the duration (days) of low flows. From an environmental point of view, and considering the need to meet the objectives established by the Water Framework Directive (WFD), this will be a major challenge for the future planning on water management.