Historical and future global burned area with changing climate and human demography
Historical and future global burned area with changing climate and human demography
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DOI：
10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.002
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发表时间：
2021-04
期刊：
影响因子：
16.2
通讯作者：
Chao Wu;S. Venevsky;S. Sitch;L. Mercado;C. Huntingford;A. Staver
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chao Wu;S. Venevsky;S. Sitch;L. Mercado;C. Huntingford;A. Staver
野火影响陆地碳循环，并代表一种安全风险，但基于过程的了解其频率和空间分布仍然难以捉摸。我们结合联合收割机基于卫星的观测与增强的动态全球植被模型，使区域解决的全球评估燃烧面积（BA）对气候变化的反应，来自34个地球系统模型和人类人口1860-2100年。受气候和社会经济的限制，最近的BA有所减少，特别是在中南美洲和非洲中部稀树草原。然而，未来的模拟预测，由于气候变化，人口密度的快速增长和城市化，BA增加。在高纬度地区，由于加速变暖，以及在热带和亚热带地区，由于干燥和人类点火，BA的增加特别明显。相反，快速的城市化也限制了BA通过加强灭火附近的定居点，抵消了未来急剧增加的潜力，这取决于变暖的程度。我们的分析为区域和全球BA趋势提供了进一步的见解，强调了在气候变化下将人类人口变化纳入野火模型的重要性。
Wildfires influence terrestrial carbon cycling and represent a safety risk, and yet a process-based understanding of their frequency and spatial distributions remains elusive. We combine satellite-based observations with an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model to make regionally resolved global assessments of burned area (BA) responses to changing climate, derived from 34 Earth system models and human demographics for 1860–2100. Limited by climate and socioeconomics, recent BA has decreased, especially in central South America and mesic African savannas. However, future simulations predict increasing BA due to changing climate, rapid population density growth, and urbanization. BA increases are especially notable at high latitudes, due to accelerated warming, and over the tropics and subtropics, due to drying and human ignitions. Conversely, rapid urbanization also limits BA via enhanced fire suppression in the immediate vicinity of settlements, offsetting the potential for dramatic future increases, depending on warming extent. Our analysis provides further insight into regional and global BA trends, highlighting the importance of including human demographic change in models for wildfire under changing climate.