Evidence-based Estimates of the Demand for Radiotherapy
Evidence-based Estimates of the Demand for Radiotherapy
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DOI：
10.1016/j.clon.2014.10.005
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发表时间：
2015-02-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Barton, M. B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Delaney, G. P.;Barton, M. B.
有不同的方法可用于估计人群未来对放射治疗服务的需求，从专家意见到复杂的建模技术。这份手稿描述了使用循证治疗指南来确定放射治疗的适应症。它还使用流行病学数据来估计具有表明从放射治疗中获益的属性的人口比例，以便计算可以适当建议接受放射治疗的新癌症病例的人口总比例。循证方法是透明的，适用于不同的人群，但需要广泛的信息，放疗的适应症和癌症病例的比例与这些适应症的population.In 2003年，这种方法产生了一个估计，52.4%的患者登记的癌症类型有放疗的适应症。该模型在2012年进行了更新，因为癌症发病率，分期分布和放疗适应症发生了变化。最佳放疗利用率的新估计值为48.3%。这一下降是由于癌症类型相对频率的变化和放射治疗适应症的一些变化。在大多数人群中，放射治疗的实际使用率仍然远低于这一基准。(C)2014年皇家放射科医师学院。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
There are different methods that may be used to estimate the future demand for radiotherapy services in a population ranging from expert opinion through to complex modelling techniques. This manuscript describes the use of evidence-based treatment guidelines to determine indications for radiotherapy. It also uses epidemiological data to estimate the proportion of the population who have attributes that suggest a benefit from radiotherapy in order to calculate the overall proportion of a population of new cases of cancer who appropriately could be recommended to undergo radiotherapy. Evidence-based methods are transparent and adaptable to different populations but require extensive information about the indications for radiotherapy and the proportion of cancer cases with those indications in the population.In 2003 this method produced an estimate that 52.4% of patients with a registered cancer-type had an indication for radiotherapy. The model was updated in 2012 because of changes in cancer incidence, stage distributions and indications for radiotherapy. The new estimate of the optimal radiotherapy utilisation rate was 48.3%. The decrease was due to changes in the relative frequency of cancer types and some changes in indications for radiotherapy. Actual rates of radiotherapy utilisation in most populations still fall well below this benchmark. (C) 2014 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.