Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x
复制
发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Lindsay, Keith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brady, Riley X.;Lovenduski, Nicole S.;Lindsay, Keith
加州海流系统(CCS)维持着具有经济价值的渔业，特别容易受到海洋酸化的影响，因为它的自然上升流富含碳的水域对当地生态系统造成了腐蚀条件。在这里，我们使用一套新的回溯性的、初始化的集合预报和地球系统模式(ESM)来预测CCS中表面pH异常的演变。结果表明，该预报系统比一种简单的预报方法能熟练地提前一年预报观测到的表层pH变化，并有可能提前五年进行预报。表面pH值的巧妙预测主要来自于溶解的无机碳异常的初始化，这些异常随后被输送到CCS。我们的结果证明了ESMS在CCS中提供大范围海洋酸化的巧妙预测的潜力。初始化的ESMS还可以为改进高分辨率区域预报系统提供边界条件。由于海洋酸化，对海洋生态系统的威胁正在增加，但趋势在时空上很难监测或预测。在这里，作者使用一个地球系统模型来准确地预测在经济和生态上具有重要意义的加州洋流系统的表面pH值变化。
The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to its natural upwelling of carbon-enriched waters that generate corrosive conditions for local ecosystems. Here we use a novel suite of retrospective, initialized ensemble forecasts with an Earth system model (ESM) to predict the evolution of surface pH anomalies in the CCS. We show that the forecast system skillfully predicts observed surface pH variations a year in advance over a naive forecasting method, with the potential for skillful prediction up to five years in advance. Skillful predictions of surface pH are mainly derived from the initialization of dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies that are subsequently transported into the CCS. Our results demonstrate the potential for ESMs to provide skillful predictions of ocean acidification on large scales in the CCS. Initialized ESMs could also provide boundary conditions to improve high-resolution regional forecasting systems. Threats to marine ecosystems are increasing due to ocean acidification, but trends are spatiotemporally difficult to monitor or predict. Here the authors use an Earth system model to accurately predict surface pH changes in the economically and ecologically important California Current System.