National Diabetes Programs: Application of capture-recapture to count diabetes?
National Diabetes Programs: Application of capture-recapture to count diabetes?
复制标题
国家糖尿病计划：应用捕获-再捕获来计数糖尿病？
作者：
G. Bruno;Ronald E Laporte;F. Merletti;A. Biggeri;D. McCarty;G. Pagano
目的 评估使用多个常规收集的计算机化数据源捕获-再捕获方法来估计糖尿病的数量和患病率的效用。用于区域和国家糖尿病监测的方法要么太不准确，要么太昂贵。研究设计和方法进行了一项调查，使用四种确定来源来确定意大利北部社区已知糖尿病的流行病例：糖尿病诊所和家庭医生、出院情况、处方、试剂条和胰岛素注射器。采用捕获-重新捕获方法来估计失踪病例数，并根据漏算情况进行调整，以准确估计患有糖尿病的人数。结果 我们通过密集的病例发现程序确定了 2,069 例已知糖尿病的独特流行病例。糖尿病诊所和家庭医生的数据来源确定了最多的病例。 The evaluation of the two sample capture-recapture estimates showed that they were all biased downward because of dependencies between sources.采用对数线性模型来考虑所有数据源之间的依赖性和糖尿病患者的异质性。该方法估计存在 2,586 例病例，确定调整患病率为 2.77%（95% 置信区间，2.44-3.10）。因此，尽管积极进行病例识别，仍有约 20% 的病例未能被识别。然而，案件数量和比率可以通过捕获-重新捕获轻松调整。结论 该研究表明，如果研究者不能保证来源是独立的，那么两个样本的捕获-再捕获估计可能会有很大偏差。然而，如果使用至少三个数据源，对数线性模型允许估计根据漏算程度调整的数量和患病率（尽管存在数据源的依赖性和糖尿病人群的异质性）。然而，关键因素是，采用捕获-再捕获方法的多个来源的应用可以跨广泛的地理区域和跨时间应用，以便在地方和国家层面对糖尿病进行具有成本效益的监测。
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the utility of capture-recapture methods using multiple, routinely collected, computerized data sources to estimate the numbers and prevalence of diabetes. Methods employed for regional and national monitoring of diabetes have been too inaccurate or too expensive. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A survey was undertaken that used four sources of ascertainment to identify prevalent cases of known diabetes in a community of Northern Italy: diabetic clinic and family physicians, hospital discharges, prescriptions, and reagent strips and insulin syringes. Capture-recapture methods were employed to estimate the number of missing cases and to adjust for undercount to accurately estimate the number of people who had diabetes. RESULTS We identified 2,069 unique prevalent cases of known diabetes with the intensive case-finding procedure. The diabetic clinic and family physicians data source identified the largest number of cases. The evaluation of the two sample capture-recapture estimates showed that they were all biased downward because of dependencies between sources. Log-linear modeling was employed to take into account the dependence among all data sources and the heterogeneity of diabetic patients. This method estimated that 2,586 cases existed, resulting in an ascertainment-adjusted prevalence of 2.77% (95% confidence interval, 2.44–3.10). Thus, despite the active case identification, ∼20% could not be identified. However, the number of cases and rates could easily be adjusted using capture-recapture. CONCLUSIONS The study shows that a two-sample capture-recapture estimate could be very biased if the investigator is not assured that the sources are independent. However, if at least three data sources are employed, log-linear models allow estimation of the number and prevalence rate adjusted for the degree of undercount (in spite of both the dependence of data sources and the heterogeneity of the diabetic population). The critical factor, however, is that the application of multiple sources with capture-recapture methods could be applied across broad geographical areas and across time to have cost-effective monitoring of diabetes at local and national level.
监测心肌梗塞的发生率：捕获-标记-再捕获技术的应用。
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
LaPorte,RE;Tull,ES;McCarty,D
通讯作者：
McCarty,D
儿童糖尿病、流行病和流行病学：控制糖尿病的方法。
影响因子：
5
作者：
通讯作者：
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