Air Power As A Coercive Instrument
Air Power As A Coercive Instrument
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空中力量作为强制手段
DOI：
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Larson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Byman;Matthew C. Waxman;E. Larson
胁迫--使用威胁武力诱使对手改变其行为--是美国军方的一项关键职能。美国军队最近在巴尔干、波斯湾和非洲之角进行了战斗，以迫使顽固的政权和军阀停止镇压，放弃武器计划，允许人道主义救济，并以其他方式改变他们的行动。然而，尽管美国拥有压倒性的军事实力，但它往往无法成功地进行胁迫。这份报告探讨了胁迫现象以及空中力量如何促成这一现象的成功。有三个因素增加了胁迫成功的可能性：(1)胁迫者提高其施加的成本的能力，同时拒绝对手作出回应的机会(升级主导地位)；(2)阻止对手取得胜利的军事战略的能力；以及(3)放大第三方威胁的能力，例如国内不稳定或另一个敌人构成的危险。国内的政治顾虑(例如对伤亡的敏感性)和联盟的动态往往限制了强制行动，并损害了这些条件的实现。空中力量可以提供强大而可信的威胁，助长上述因素，同时抵消对手的反胁迫行动。然而，当缺乏有利因素时，空中力量--或任何其他军事手段--很可能无法胁迫。政策制定者在不吉利的情况下使用强制性空中力量，降低了在其他地方使用空中力量的可能性，而此时成功的前景会更大。
Coercion--the use of threatened force to induce an adversary to change its behavior--is a critical function of the U.S. military. U.S. forces have recently fought in the Balkans, the Persian Gulf, and the Horn of Africa to compel recalcitrant regimes and warlords to stop repression, abandon weapons programs, permit humanitarian relief, and otherwise modify their actions. Yet despite its overwhelming military might, the United States often fails to coerce successfully. This report examines the phenomenon of coercion and how air power can contribute to its success. Three factors increase the likelihood of successful coercion: (1) the coercer's ability to raise the costs it imposes while denying the adversary the chance to respond (escalation dominance); (2) an ability to block an adversary's military strategy for victory; and (3) an ability to magnify third-party threats, such as internal instability or the danger posed by another enemy. Domestic political concerns (such as casualty sensitivity) and coalition dynamics often constrain coercive operations and impair the achievement of these conditions. Air power can deliver potent and credible threats that foster the above factors while neutralizing adversary countercoercive moves. When the favorable factors are absent, however, air power--or any other military instrument--will probably fail to coerce. Policymakers' use of coercive air power under inauspicious conditions diminishes the chances of using it elsewhere when the prospects of success would be greater.