Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario.
Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario.
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DOI：
10.1038/ncomms4304
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发表时间：
2014-02-25
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Oschlies, Andreas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keller, David P.;Feng, Ellias Y.;Oschlies, Andreas
由于认识到减少二氧化碳排放的缓解努力迄今为止相对无效，人们对气候工程作为防止气候变化潜在灾难性后果的可能手段越来越感兴趣。虽然许多研究已经讨论了个别方法的潜在有效性，但很少有人尝试对它们进行比较。在这里，我们使用一个地球系统模型来比较高二氧化碳排放情景下植树造林、人工海洋涌升、海洋铁施肥、海洋碱化和太阳辐射管理的有效性和副作用。我们发现，即使在持续应用和目前认为可能的大规模应用时，所有方法都是，单独地，要么相对无效，减少有限（<8%）的变暖，要么它们具有潜在的严重副作用，并且无法在不引起快速气候变化的情况下停止。我们的模拟表明，这些类型的气候工程来弥补失败的减缓的潜力可能非常有限。 迄今为止，气候工程在避免潜在灾难性气候变化方面的有效性评价很差。Keller等人使用地球系统模型表明，五种不同的气候工程方案可能产生有限的影响或潜在的严重副作用。
The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited. The effectiveness of climate engineering in averting potentially catastrophic climate change has thus far been poorly evaluated. Keller et al. use an Earth system model to show that five different climate engineering scenarios are likely to have either a limited impact or potentially severe side effects.
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