A Growth Theory for the Insurance Industry
A Growth Theory for the Insurance Industry
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1540-6296.2009.01172.x
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发表时间：
2010-03
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Nektarios
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作者：
M. Nektarios
保险经济学的静力学和比较静力学模型假设经济调整过程必然导致均衡。可达到平衡的问题到目前为止还没有得到解决。这是动态分析的领域。在本文中，我们为保险业开发了一个经济增长模型。保险业的生产函数是基于这样的假设：产出，即“发生的损失”，是“投资资产”和“其他劳动和非劳动投入”的函数。后者的增长率为n，代表保险费用的增长率。资产投入比r表征了保险业最终达到的稳态增长路径。调整过程通过资产损失率v进行，资产损失率v受保险杠杆率、损失率和保险业风险敞口的影响。达到稳定状态的保险业的产出增长率为n +π，其中π是平均生产率的增长率。存款准备金率的增量决定了保险业的稳定增长路径。s的增加或减少可能会使保险业进入更高或更低的增长路径。我们认为，这一分析为分析保险行业的动态现象提供了更强的理论背景。
Insurance economics models of statics and comparative statics assume that the process of economic adjustment must inevitably lead to equilibrium. The question of attainability of equilibrium has not been addressed so far. This is the domain of dynamic analysis. In this article, we develop a model of economic growth for the insurance industry. The production function of the insurance industry is based on the assumption that the output, “incurred losses,” is a function of “invested assets” and “other labor and nonlabor inputs.” The latter grow at the rate n, a proxy of the growth rate of insurance expenses. The assets–inputs ratio, r, characterizes the steady‐state growth path that the insurance industry eventually attains. The adjustment process takes place through the assets–losses ratio, v, which is affected by the insurance leverage, the loss ratio, and the insurance exposure of the insurance industry. An insurance industry that has reached a steady state will have its output growing at the rate n +π, where π is the growth rate of average productivity. The incremental reserve ratio, s, determines definitely a steady‐state growth path for the insurance industry. An increase or decrease in s may move the insurance industry to a higher or lower growth path. We suggest that this analysis provides a stronger theoretical context for analyzing dynamic phenomena in the insurance industry.