Exploring agent-level calculations of risk and returns in relation to observed land-use changes in the US Great Plains, 1870-1940.
Exploring agent-level calculations of risk and returns in relation to observed land-use changes in the US Great Plains, 1870-1940.
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探索与观察到的 1870-1940 年美国大平原土地利用变化相关的风险和回报的代理级计算。
DOI：
10.1007/s10113-014-0628-6
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Hutchins,Meghan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sylvester,KennethM;Brown,DanielG;Leonard,SusanH;Merchant,Emily;Hutchins,Meghan
自世纪后半叶农业定居以来，美国大平原的土地利用变化已有很好的记录。虽然总的历史趋势很容易跟踪，但单个农民的决策很难重建。我们使用基于代理的模型，根据有关价格、产量、农业成本和环境条件的历史数据模拟农场层面的农业决策，来讲述西部定居的历史。该模型的经验设置是1875年至1940年期间在两个乡镇在堪萨斯，一个在短草地区，另一个在混合草地区。关于产量和价格的年度历史数据确定了各种土地使用的盈利能力，从而为决策提供信息，并结合农民以前的经验和随机分配的风险规避水平。结果表明，模型输出和一个独特的和详细的一套家庭一级的历史土地利用和农场规模的记录之间的协议水平表明，经济行为和自然禀赋占土地变化过程在一定程度上，但不完整。通过模型实验，我们调整输入和输出价格，作物产量，代理记忆，和风险规避的离散检查，以确定丢失的过程。这些分析表明，基于代理的建模如何成为思考过去社会和经济行为的有用实验室。
Land-use change in the US Great Plains since agricultural settlement in the second half of the nineteenth century has been well documented. While aggregate historical trends are easily tracked, the decision making of individual farmers is difficult to reconstruct. We use an agent-based model to tell the history of the settlement of the west by simulating farm-level agricultural decision making based on historical data about prices, yields, farming costs, and environmental conditions. The empirical setting for the model is the period between 1875 and 1940 in two townships in Kansas, one in the shortgrass region and the other in the mixed grass region. Annual historical data on yields and prices determine profitability of various land uses and thereby inform decision making, in conjunction with the farmer’s previous experience and randomly assigned levels of risk aversion. Results illustrating the level of agreement between model output and a unique and detailed set of household-level records of historical land use and farm size suggest that economic behavior and natural endowments account for land change processes to some degree, but are incomplete. Discrepancies are examined to identify missing processes through model experiments, in which we adjust input and output prices, crop yields, agent memory, and risk aversion. These analyses demonstrate that how agent-based modeling can be a useful laboratory for thinking about social and economic behavior in the past.