Estimating Border Effects: The Impact of Spatial Aggregation
Estimating Border Effects: The Impact of Spatial Aggregation
复制标题
估计边界效应：空间聚集的影响
DOI：
10.20955/wp.2016.006
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. Novy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cletus C. Coughlin;D. Novy
贸易数据通常按区域或国家报告，因此是跨空间的汇总数据。本文研究了标准重力估计对空间聚集的敏感性。我们建立了一个模型，其中最初对称的微观区域相结合，形成聚集的宏观区域。然后，我们将该模型应用于国内和国际贸易中的边界效应的大量文献。我们的理论表明，较大的国家系统地与较小的边界效应相关联。原因是，由于空间摩擦，跨空间聚集增加了境内贸易的相对成本。因此，跨境贸易的成本似乎相对较小。这种机制导致了边界效应的异质性，并独立于一般均衡中的多边阻力效应。即使在微观层面上不存在边界摩擦，基于总量数据的重力估计仍然会产生较大的边界效应。我们在美国各州的水平上测试我们的国内和国际贸易流理论。我们的研究结果证实了模型的预测，定量的影响很大。
Trade data are typically reported at the level of regions or countries and are therefore aggregates across space. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of standard gravity estimation to spatial aggregation. We build a model in which initially symmetric micro regions are combined to form aggregated macro regions. We then apply the model to the large literature on border effects in domestic and international trade. Our theory shows that larger countries are systematically associated with smaller border effects. The reason is that due to spatial frictions, aggregation across space increases the relative cost of trading within borders. The cost of trading across borders therefore appears relatively smaller. This mechanism leads to border effect heterogeneity and is independent of multilateral resistance effects in general equilibrium. Even if no border frictions exist at the micro level, gravity estimation on aggregate data can still produce large border effects. We test our theory on domestic and international trade flows at the level of U.S. states. Our results confirm the model's predictions, with quantitatively large effects.