FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ATLANTA WORKING PAPER SERIES Trends and Cycles in China’s Macroeconomy
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ATLANTA WORKING PAPER SERIES Trends and Cycles in China’s Macroeconomy
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发表时间：
2015
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通讯作者：
Chun Chang;Kaiji Chen;Daniel F. Waggoner;Tao Zha
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作者：
Chun Chang;Kaiji Chen;Daniel F. Waggoner;Tao Zha
我们在本文中做了四个贡献。首先，我们提供了一个可用于系统研究中国宏观经济时间序列的核心。其次，我们通过各种实证方法记录了关于趋势和周期的惊人模式的强有力的发现。第三，我们建立一个理论模型来解释这些事实。第四，该模型的机制和假设得到了制度细节、分类数据和银行时间序列的证实，所有这些都具有鲜明的中国特色。我们认为，促进重工业的优惠信贷政策解释了异常的周期模式，以及20世纪90年代后的经济转型，其特征是持续上升的投资率，劳动收入份额下降，和不断增长的外汇盈余。我们的理论模型与标准模型的背离，为研究中国现代宏观经济提供了一个建设性的框架。JEL分类：E、F4、G1
We make four contributions in this paper. First, we provide a core of macroeconomic time series usable for systematic research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend and cycle. Third, we build a theoretical model that accounts for these facts. Fourth, the model’s mechanism and assumptions are corroborated by institutional details, disaggregated data, and banking time series, all of which are distinctive Chinese characteristics. We argue that preferential credit policy for promoting heavy industries accounts for the unusual cyclical patterns as well as the post-1990s economic transition featured by the persistently rising investment rate, the declining labor income share, and a growing foreign surplus. The departure of our theoretical model from standard ones offers a constructive framework for studying China's modern macroeconomy. JEL classification: E, F4, G1