Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic.
Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic.
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DOI：
10.1038/nature22040
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发表时间：
2017-04-20
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Rambaut A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dudas G;Carvalho LM;Bedford T;Tatem AJ;Baele G;Faria NR;Park DJ;Ladner JT;Arias A;Asogun D;Bielejec F;Caddy SL;Cotten M;D'Ambrozio J;Dellicour S;Di Caro A;Diclaro JW;Duraffour S;Elmore MJ;Fakoli LS;Faye O;Gilbert ML;Gevao SM;Gire S;Gladden-Young A;Gnirke A;Goba A;Grant DS;Haagmans BL;Hiscox JA;Jah U;Kugelman JR;Liu D;Lu J;Malboeuf CM;Mate S;Matthews DA;Matranga CB;Meredith LW;Qu J;Quick J;Pas SD;Phan MVT;Pollakis G;Reusken CB;Sanchez-Lockhart M;Schaffner SF;Schieffelin JS;Sealfon RS;Simon-Loriere E;Smits SL;Stoecker K;Thorne L;Tobin EA;Vandi MA;Watson SJ;West K;Whitmer S;Wiley MR;Winnicki SM;Wohl S;Wölfel R;Yozwiak NL;Andersen KG;Blyden SO;Bolay F;Carroll MW;Dahn B;Diallo B;Formenty P;Fraser C;Gao GF;Garry RF;Goodfellow I;Günther S;Happi CT;Holmes EC;Kargbo B;Keïta S;Kellam P;Koopmans MPG;Kuhn JH;Loman NJ;Magassouba N;Naidoo D;Nichol ST;Nyenswah T;Palacios G;Pybus OG;Sabeti PC;Sall A;Ströher U;Wurie I;Suchard MA;Lemey P;Rambaut A
2013-2016年埃博拉病毒病疫情的规模、持续时间和影响都是前所未有的。通过分析1610个埃博拉病毒基因组，占已知病例的5%以上，我们重建了整个地区埃博拉病毒的传播，增殖和衰退。我们测试了地理，气候和人口与行政区域之间的病毒运动的关联，推断出一个经典的“引力”模型，在较大和较近的人群之间具有强烈的传播。尽管在关闭边界后国际传播减弱，但跨界传播已经为国际流行病埋下了种子，使这些措施无法有效遏制这一流行病。我们讨论了为什么这一流行病没有蔓延到邻国，表明它们容易发生重大疫情，但传入的风险较低。最后，我们揭示了这个大的流行病是一个异构的和空间分离的收集不同大小，持续时间和连接的传输集群。这些见解将有助于为未来的流行病干预提供信息。
The 2013–2016 epidemic of Ebola virus disease was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Analysing 1610 Ebola virus genomes, representing over 5% of known cases, we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic ‘gravity’ model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already set the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective in curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing they were susceptible to significant outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal this large epidemic to be a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help inform interventions in future epidemics.