On Modeling Worldviews in Quantitative Decision Support
On Modeling Worldviews in Quantitative Decision Support
复制标题
定量决策支持中的世界观建模
DOI：
10.1111/risa.13749
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
P. Stern
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Stern
为了在高度不确定的情况下为决策提供信息，风险分析人员需要考虑如何最好地处理这样一个事实，即利益相关者往往没有共同的具体关切或基本观点。Lempert和Turner提出，如果模型包含社会科学理论中定义的三种世界观，则审议可以得到改善。这篇评论表明，当模型被归纳地构建时，更有可能从深思熟虑中产生能力和合法性，首先询问利益相关者的决策相关关切，然后开发模型与他们交谈。Lempert和Turner的建模方法增加了复杂性，在可访问性和信任度之间进行了艰难的权衡。
To inform decisions under deep uncertainty, risk analysts need to consider how best to deal with the fact that stakeholders often do not share specific concerns or fundamental perspectives. Lempert and Turner propose that deliberation can improve if models incorporate three worldviews defined in social science theory. This commentary suggests that competence and legitimacy are more likely to emerge from deliberation when models are built inductively, inquiring first about stakeholders’ decision‐relevant concerns and then developing models to speak to them. The added complexity of Lempert and Turner's modeling approach presents difficult tradeoffs with accessibility and trust.