The impact of climate change on winter road maintenance and traffic accidents in West Midlands, UK
The impact of climate change on winter road maintenance and traffic accidents in West Midlands, UK
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DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2010.08.025
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发表时间：
2011-01-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Chapman, Lee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andersson, Anna K.;Chapman, Lee
冬季天气可能是道路交通事故的一个重要原因。本文使用UKCIP气候变化情景和时间模拟来研究温度与英国西米德兰兹郡严重道路交通事故之间的关系。这种方法还可以量化该地区下个世纪冬季严酷程度的变化。结果表明，霜冻天数的预测减少将会使因路面滑动引起的交通事故数量减少约50%。然而，论文最后警告人们不要对冬季维护制度感到自满。气候变暖可能导致公路维护预算的削减，而这反过来又可能扭转事故减少的趋势。(C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
Winter weather can be a significant cause of road traffic accidents. This paper uses UKCIP climate change scenarios and a temporal analogue to investigate the relationship between temperature and severe road accidents in the West Midlands, UK. This approach also allows quantification of the changes in the severity of the winter season over the next century in the region. It is demonstrated that the predicted reduction in the number of frost days should in turn reduce the number of road accidents caused due to slipperiness by approximately 50%. However, the paper concludes by warning against complacency in winter maintenance regimes. A warmer climate may result in budget cuts for highway maintenance which in turn may well reverse declining accident trends. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.