Applying a coupled hydrologic-economic modeling framework: Evaluating conjunctive use strategies for alleviating seasonal watershed impacts caused by agricultural intensification
Applying a coupled hydrologic-economic modeling framework: Evaluating conjunctive use strategies for alleviating seasonal watershed impacts caused by agricultural intensification
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DOI：
10.3389/frwa.2022.913501
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发表时间：
2022-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Amaya;F. Duchin;E. Hester;John C. Little
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Amaya;F. Duchin;E. Hester;John C. Little
经济模型和分水岭模型提供了有用的结果，但在寻求整合这些系统时，必须协调这些模型通常使用的时间单位。建立了水文经济建模框架，将代表流域系统的水文模拟程序-Fortran (HSPF) 与矩形技术选择 (RCOT) 模型（基本投入产出 (I-O) 模型的扩展）相结合。该框架在不同的亚年时间步长实施，以便深入了解选择最适合解决经济学家和水文学家感兴趣的问题的时间单位。情景设计旨在检查位于弗吉尼亚州北部福基尔县的 Cedar Run 流域由于农业集约化而出现的氮浓度季节性增加。这些情景还评估了作物种植部门内地表水、地下水或混合（联合使用）灌溉实践的选择，以应对这些季节性影响。当 Cedar Run 流域发生农业集约化时，实施灌溉联合使用可将氮浓度的季节性增加减少到指定限度。明确考虑的最有效的联合使用策略根据场景中使用的时间步长而有所不同：一年两次的时间步长（雨季和旱季）与季节性时间步长。该建模框架以时间分辨率捕捉分水岭和经济系统之间的相互作用，从而扩大了人们可以解决的问题范围，超出了使用该框架中链接的各个模型可以分析的问题范围。
Economic models and watershed models provide useful results, but when seeking to integrate these systems, the temporal units typically utilized by these models must be reconciled. A hydrologic-economic modeling framework is built to couple the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), representing the watershed system, with the Rectangular Choice-of-Technology (RCOT) model, an extension of the basic input-output (I-O) model. This framework is implemented at different sub-annual timesteps to gain insight in selecting temporal units best suited for addressing questions of interest to both economists and hydrologists. Scenarios are designed to examine seasonal increases in nitrogen concentration that occur because of agricultural intensification in Cedar Run Watershed, located in Fauquier County, northern Virginia. These scenarios also evaluate the selection among surface water, groundwater, or a mix of (conjunctive use) practices for irrigation within the crop farming sector in response to these seasonal impacts. When agricultural intensification occurs in Cedar Run Watershed, implementing conjunctive use in irrigation reduces the seasonal increases in nitrogen concentration to specified limits. The most efficient of the conjunctive use strategies explicitly considered varies depending on which timestep is utilized in the scenario: a bi-annual timestep (wet and dry season) vs. a seasonal timestep. This modeling framework captures the interactions between watershed and economic systems at a temporal resolution that expands the range of questions one can address beyond those that can be analyzed using the individual models linked in this framework.