Inferring local processes from macro-scale phenological pattern: a comparison of two methods
Inferring local processes from macro-scale phenological pattern: a comparison of two methods
复制标题
从宏观物候模式推断局部过程：两种方法的比较
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2745.12067
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Phillimore A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Phillimore A
了解负责宏观尺度的空间和时间物候模式的过程是开发预测物候模型的关键一步。虽然物候反应可能涉及多种环境线索的整合，但许多植物和动物物种的春季物候似乎对温度特别敏感，由于公民科学计划在动员业余博物学家方面取得了成功，在世界某些地区，现在存在广泛的物候时间数据集，涵盖许多物种，地点和年份。在宏观生态学中，时间窗模型和生长度日模型被广泛应用于基于温度的物候预测，本文比较了这两种模型在预测栎（Quercus robur）初叶时间时空变化方面的性能。这些方法在叶对温度变得敏感的时间上达成一致，并且由于日照长度的要求，随着纬度的增加，热敏感性的开始延迟提供了弱支持。这两种方法都解释了C。50%的第一个日期的变化，并确定可塑性，而不是当地的适应，作为温度和物候之间的空间协变的主要原因。对于春季温度上升1°C，我们预测，第一叶的塑性响应将提前约7天。综合：时间窗和生长度日方法提供了非常一致的见解，以支持栎第一叶日期的地理变异过程。我们发现，一个空间不变的塑料对温度的反应占主导地位的时空物候变化，这意味着它可能是合理的，以空间代替时间来预测该物种将如何应对气候变化。这项研究表明，自上而下的宏观生态方法可以使我们的理解的过程，引起种内物候变化的贡献。
Understanding the processes responsible for macro‐scale spatial and temporal phenological patterns is a critical step in developing predictive phenological models. While phenological responses may involve the integration of multiple environmental cues, the spring phenology of many plant and animal species appears to be especially sensitive to temperature.As a result of the success of citizen science schemes in mobilizing amateur naturalists, for some parts of the world, there now exist extensive data sets of phenological timings, spanning many species, locations and years. In macroecology, two types of models – time windows and growing degree‐days – are widely used to predict phenology on the basis of temperature.Here, we compare the performance of the two methods in predicting spatiotemporal variation in the timing ofQuercus roburfirst leafing. The methods agree on the time at which leafing becomes sensitive to temperature and provide weak support for a delay in initiation of thermal sensitivity with increasing latitude due to a day‐length requirement. Both methods explain c. 50% of the variation in first dates and identify plasticity, rather than local adaptation, as the major cause of spatial covariation between temperature and phenology. For a 1°C rise in spring temperatures we predict that a plastic response of first leafing will give rise to an advance of about seven days.Synthesis: Time‐window and growing degree‐day methods provide remarkably congruent insights into the processes underpinning geographic variation in Quercus robur first leafing dates. We find that a spatially invariant plastic response to temperature dominates spatiotemporal phenological variation, which means that it may be reasonable to substitute space for time to project how this species will respond to climate change. This study demonstrates the contribution that top‐down macroecological approaches can make to our understanding of the processes that give rise to intraspecific phenological variation.