Uncertainty and the basis for confidence in solar geoengineering research
Uncertainty and the basis for confidence in solar geoengineering research
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DOI：
10.1038/s43017-019-0004-7
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发表时间：
2020-01
影响因子：
42.1
通讯作者：
B. Kravitz;D. MacMartin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Kravitz;D. MacMartin
太阳地球工程是气候变化讨论中的一个新兴话题。为了支持未来关于部署这项技术的决定，社会需要更好地估计其环境影响和限制。由于太阳地球工程从未被部署过，关于其气候影响的结论主要是通过模型和自然模拟获得的。因此，我们对太阳能地球工程预测的信心，这种信心的基础以及如何提高我们的信心是有限的。在这个角度来看，我们回顾了我们目前的理解，通过平流层气溶胶的太阳地球工程的不确定性和风险。使用风险登记册框架，我们说明了关键的不确定性，如次网格尺度混合或平流层加热的影响，调查应优先考虑将该领域过渡到任务驱动的研究议程。最后，我们建议可能的研究途径，包括有针对性的模型相互比较和适当管理的小规模实地实验。
Solar geoengineering is an emerging topic in climate-change discussions. To support future decisions on the deployment of this technology, society requires better estimates of its environmental impacts and limitations. As solar geoengineering has never been deployed, conclusions about its climatic effects are primarily obtained through models and natural analogues. As such, our confidence in projections of solar geoengineering, the basis for that confidence and how our confidence can be improved is limited. In this Perspective, we review our current understanding of uncertainty and risk in solar geoengineering via stratospheric aerosols. Using a risk-register framework, we illustrate key uncertainties, such as sub-grid-scale mixing or effects of stratospheric heating, investigations of which should be prioritized to transition the field to a mission-driven research agenda. We conclude with recommendations for possible avenues of research, including targeted model intercomparisons and appropriately governed small-scale field experiments.