A combined Pòlya process and mixture distribution approach to rainfall modelling
A combined Pòlya process and mixture distribution approach to rainfall modelling
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用于降雨模拟的 Pòlya 过程和混合物分布相结合的方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
1997
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Bacco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Todini;M. Bacco
为了建立降雨的随机模型，引入了一种新的现场降雨序列的概率解释。该模型分为两个子模型：第一个子模型描述一个时间窗口内的总降雨时段数，以便更好地再现风暴事件(由于存在不同数量的降雨单元)期间降雨发生的可变概率；第二个子模型以第一个子模型为条件，描述给定若干个降雨时段的时间窗口内的总降雨量。概率降雨模型在再现从1小时到24小时的时间尺度上的观测数据的概率分布方面表现出了有趣的特性，可以作为一些应用的基础，包括在实时洪水预报框架内开发有条件的随机降雨发生器，以及推导不同时间尺度上的降雨极值的概率分布。
A new probabilistic interpretation of at site rainfall sequences is introduced for the development of a stochastic model of rain. The model, is divided into two sub models; the first one describing the total number of rainfall spells within a window of time is described by a Polya process in order to reproduce better the variable probability of occurrence of rainfall during storm events (due to the presence of different numbers of rainfall cells); the second sub model, conditional on the first one, describes the total quantity of rainfall in the time window, given a number of rainfall spells. The probabilistic rainfall model, which has shown interesting properties in reproducing the probability distribution of observed data at time scales ranging from one hour to twenty-four hours, may be the basis for a number of applications which include the development of a conditional stochastic generator of rain, within the frame of real-time flood forecasting, and the derivation of a probabilistic distribution of rainfall extremes at the various time scales.