A Review of Historical and Future Changes of Extratropical Cyclones and Associated Impacts Along the US East Coast
A Review of Historical and Future Changes of Extratropical Cyclones and Associated Impacts Along the US East Coast
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DOI：
10.1007/s40641-015-0013-7
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发表时间：
2015-07
影响因子：
9.5
通讯作者：
B. Colle;J. Booth;E. Chang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Colle;J. Booth;E. Chang
本文回顾了美国东海岸和西大西洋温带气旋（EC）的历史和潜在的未来趋势，以及沿海洪水、强降水和破坏性大风的潜在变化。大多数模型预测，到二十一世纪中后期，美国东海岸和西大西洋地区的 EC 数量将稳步减少，而更强烈（<980 hPa）的气旋和强降水则会增加；然而，年代际间和年际间也存在很大的变化。由于难以捕捉，模型中可能存在潜在偏差：(a) 大西洋风暴轨迹对墨西哥湾流海温梯度的敏感性，(b) 这些风暴内的潜在加热，以及 (c) 急流高度的动态相互作用。需要做更多的工作来确定混合风暴（例如，桑迪 2012）的未来变化和诊断，以更好地了解模型中未来的气旋变化。
This paper reviews the historical and potential future trends of extratropical cyclones (ECs) along the United States (US) East Coast and western Atlantic, as well as potential changes in coastal flooding, heavy precipitation, and damaging winds. Most models project a steady decrease in the number of ECs for the US East Coast and western Atlantic region by the middle to later twenty-first century, while there is an increase in more intense (<980 hPa) cyclones and heavy precipitation; however, there is also been large interdecadal and interannual variability. Potential biases may exist in the models because of difficulty capturing: (a) the Atlantic storm track sensitivity to the Gulf Stream SST gradient, (b) latent heating within these storms, and (c) dynamical interactions at jet level. More work is needed to determine future changes in hybrid storms (e.g., Sandy 2012) and diagnostics to better understand the future cyclone changes in the models.