Sources of uncertainty in interdependent infrastructure and their implications
Sources of uncertainty in interdependent infrastructure and their implications
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相互依赖的基础设施的不确定性来源及其影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2021.107756
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Gerst, Michael D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Reilly, Allison C.;Baroud, Hiba;Flage, Roger;Gerst, Michael D.
虽然重大的建模进步已经揭示了相互依赖的基础设施的复杂性，但灾后侦察始终表明结果的广泛变化以及还有多少东西需要学习。考虑到这一点，人们可能会期望在相互依赖的基础设施模型中对不确定性的处理相当先进，但我们发现情况并非如此。在这项工作中，我们确定，定义和描述两个关键类的不确定性：系统的不确定性和建模的不确定性。系统不确定性在所有复杂的基础设施系统中是固有的，并且具有若干子类（例如，物理不确定性和操作不确定性）。当研究人员将一个复杂的系统缩小到数学或其他符号表示时，就会出现建模不确定性。它也有几个子类（例如，参数不确定性和完整性不确定性）。然后，我们确定了迄今为止的文献如何对待每种类型的不确定性的不确定性。虽然有些工作调查了物理和时间不确定性的影响，但总的来说，大多数类型的不确定性都很少探索，这表明存在重大的知识差距。最后，我们提出了一条处理和讨论不确定性的前进道路，包括可以从涉及复杂相互依赖系统的其他领域学到什么。
While significant modeling advances have unpacked the complexities of interdependent infrastructure, post-disaster reconnaissance consistently demonstrates a wide variability of outcomes and how much is still to be learned. With that in mind, one might expect the treatment of uncertainty to be quite advanced in interdependent infrastructure models, but we find that to not be the case. In this work, we identify, define, and describe two key classes of uncertainty: system uncertainty and modeling uncertainty. System uncertainty is inherent in all complex infrastructure systems and possesses several subclasses (e.g., physical uncertainty and operational uncertainty). Modeling uncertainty occurs when researchers downscale a complex system to a mathematical or other symbolic representation. It too has several subclasses (e.g., parameter uncertainty and completeness uncertainty). We then identify how the literature to date treats uncertainty with respect to each type of uncertainty. While some work has investigated the implications of physical and temporal uncertainty, by and large, most types of uncertainty have had minimal exploration, suggesting significant knowledge gaps. Finally, we suggest a path forward for treatment and discussion of uncertainty, including what can be learned from other fields involving complex interdependent systems.