Integrated Modelling to Support Analysis of COVID-19 Impacts on London's Water System and In-river Water Quality
Integrated Modelling to Support Analysis of COVID-19 Impacts on London's Water System and In-river Water Quality
复制标题
DOI：
10.3389/frwa.2021.641462
复制
发表时间：
2021-04-23
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Mijic, Ana
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dobson, Barnaby;Jovanovic, Tijana;Mijic, Ana
由于1920年的同期大流行，英国的公民必须在2020年呆在家里。结果，在伦敦这样的大城市中，长途通勤是普遍的，对水需求模式的空间和时间变化是不可避免的。反过来，这可能会改变人们的浪费，并最终影响水水接收水的运转质量。为了评估在城市规模上的大规模影响，例如Covid-19，是一种综合建模方法，它需要捕捉家庭和河流之间的一切。本研究提出了一个实现此目的的框架，并用于探索用水的变化以及由于政府和对Covid-19的社会反应而对废水处理和河流质量的相关影响。我们的建模结果显示，在一系列影响方案下，家庭用水的重大变化，但是，它们仅显示出对伦敦中部家庭废水污染物浓度的重大影响。模拟模型模拟的河流中的污染物浓度在泰晤士河的支流中最敏感，强调了较小河流的脆弱性以及它们在稀释污染中所起的重要作用。发现建模的氨和磷酸盐是最敏感的污染物，因为它们在城市河流中的主要来源是家用废水，在强加的移动性限制期间，它们发生了显着改变。模型评估表明，我们可以准确验证单个模型组件（即水需求发生器），并强调需要连续水质测量。最终，这项工作为水系统集成方法的进一步发展提供了基础，以在未见过的情况下进行项目变化。
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, citizens of the United Kingdom were required to stay at home for many months in 2020. In the weeks before and months following lockdown, including when it was not being enforced, citizens were advised to stay at home where possible. As a result, in a megacity such as London, where long-distance commuting is common, spatial and temporal changes to patterns of water demand are inevitable. This, in turn, may change where people's waste is treated and ultimately impact the in-river quality of effluent receiving waters. To assess large scale impacts, such as COVID-19, at the city scale, an integrated modelling approach that captures everything between households and rivers is needed. A framework to achieve this is presented in this study and used to explore changes in water use and the associated impacts on wastewater treatment and in-river quality as a result of government and societal responses to COVID-19. Our modelling results revealed significant changes to household water consumption under a range of impact scenarios, however, they only showed significant impacts on pollutant concentrations in household wastewater in central London. Pollutant concentrations in rivers simulated by the model were most sensitive in the tributaries of the River Thames, highlighting the vulnerability of smaller rivers and the important role that they play in diluting pollution. Modelled ammonia and phosphates were found to be the pollutants that rivers were most sensitive to because their main source in urban rivers is domestic wastewater that was significantly altered during the imposed mobility restrictions. A model evaluation showed that we can accurately validate individual model components (i.e., water demand generator) and emphasised need for continuous water quality measurements. Ultimatly, the work provides a basis for further developments of water systems integration approaches to project changes under never-before seen scenarios.