Improvement of Evacuation Modeling by Considering Road Blockade in the Case of an Earthquake: A Case Study of Daitoku School District, Kanazawa City, Japan
Improvement of Evacuation Modeling by Considering Road Blockade in the Case of an Earthquake: A Case Study of Daitoku School District, Kanazawa City, Japan
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DOI：
10.3390/su13052637
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发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Dinh-Thanh Nguyen;Zhenjiang Shen;M. Truong;Kenichi Sugihara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dinh-Thanh Nguyen;Zhenjiang Shen;M. Truong;Kenichi Sugihara
在灾害管理中，疏散模型被认为是一个有用的可视化工具，灾害管理人员审查当前的疏散策略，估计避难所容纳所有疏散人员的能力，并制定疏散路线规划。虽然有几个现有的研究在地震的情况下疏散建模，研究集成道路封锁到疏散模拟是相当有限的。从这个角度来看，本研究旨在开发考虑道路封锁的疏散模型，以模拟地震发生后居民如何通过城市地区转移到疏散中心（以下简称避难所）。研究还确定了与正常情况相比，在地震条件下，居民在考虑或不考虑道路封锁时可能遇到的困难，例如无法获得避难所，选择更长的路线而不是最短的路线等。城市地区受损建筑物的碎片被认为是导致道路封锁的主要碎片来源。该模型被应用到金泽市的大德学区的案例研究。根据模拟结果，由于道路封锁，许多受损建筑物的居住者无法进入避难所，许多疏散人员需要转移到具有较长路线的避难所，而不是采取最短路线。此外，研究结果表明，考虑道路封锁的可能性，以改善目前的疏散模型，使疏散模拟更真实。
In disaster management, evacuation modeling is considered a useful visual tool to disaster managers for reviewing current evacuation strategies, estimating the ability of shelters to accommodate all evacuees, and developing evacuation route planning. Though there are several existing studies on evacuation modeling in the case of an earthquake, research that integrates road blockades into evacuation simulations is quite limited. From that viewpoint, this research aims to develop evacuation modeling with consideration of road blockades to simulate how residents move to evacuation centers (hereafter, shelters) through urban areas following an earthquake occurrence. The research also determines difficulties that residents may encounter under earthquake conditions, compared with normal conditions, corresponding to considering or not considering road blockades, respectively, such as having no access to shelters, taking longer routes instead of shortest routes, and so on. Debris from damaged buildings in an urban area is assumed as the main source of debris that would cause a road blockade. The model is applied to a case study of the Daitoku school district in Kanazawa city. According to simulated results, due to road blockades, occupants of many damaged buildings did not have access to shelters, and a lot of evacuees needed to move to shelters with longer routes instead of taking the shortest routes. Furthermore, the research results show the possibility of considering road blockades for improving current evacuation modeling and making evacuation simulations more realistic.