Evolution of Population Distribution and Growth Shift in Changjiang River Delta
Evolution of Population Distribution and Growth Shift in Changjiang River Delta
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作者：
Duan Xue
随着经济社会的快速发展，长三角城市间的人口分布发生了显著变化。人口流动与迁移已成为长三角城市人口发展最集中的矛盾。本文运用密度分析、不均匀指数、重心分析和转移份额分析等方法，对中国改革开放以来长三角人口分布演变的特点和规律进行了研究，并归纳为以下四点：一是人口流动与迁移是长三角城市人口发展最集中的矛盾。长江三角洲城市在1980-1990、1990-1997、1997-2003三个阶段呈现出不同的人口演变特征。第一阶段人口增长转移幅度较大，人口分布集中较快。第二阶段人口不均衡指数和城市间人口增长转移减小，但六大区域间人口增长转移明显。第三阶段城市间人口分布集中。人口增长转移幅度加大。由于江南城市之间的人口增长转移大于江北城市之间的转移，总体人口分布中心南移。各级区域之间人口增长转移不同，区域水平较高，人口增长转移较低，人口分布更趋于稳定。自1990年以来，在市场经济条件下，尽管长三角城市之间吸引人口特别是高素质人口的竞争非常激烈，这些城市的人口增长速度差异缩小，人口分布集中度下降。由于整个区域的地位和功能、交通状况、经济社会发展水平等方面的变化，研究期间，作为江浙省会的上海市人口增长转移较多，这一时期人口不断向这些城市集中。无论如何，自中国改革开放以来，长三角地区城市之间的人口分布发生了明显的变化。这主要是受经济社会发展的驱动，也受到区域人口管理政策的显著影响。
With the rapid economic and social development,population distribution among cities in the Changjiang River Delta has undergone significant changes.Population mobility and migration has come into being the most concentrated contradictions with respect to the population development of the cities in the Changjiang River Delta.Using the methods of density analysis,uneven index,gravity centre analysis and shift-share analysis,this paper studies the characteristics and law of the population distribution evolution in the Changjiang River Delta since the beginning of the reform and open-up of China,and furthermore, sums up to the following four points: First,the population evolution of the cities in the Changjiang River!Delta shows different characters in three periods of the year 1980-1990,1990-1997,1997-2003.In the first period,the population growth shift is very large,and population distribution is centralized quickly.In the second period,the population uneven index and the population growth shift among the cities are decreased,but the population growth shift among six great regions is increased obviously.In the third period,the population distribution among the cities is centralized,and the shift extent of the population growth is increased.Because the population growth shift among the cities in the south of the Changjiang River is higher than that among the cities in the north of the Yangtze River,the overall population distribution center moves southward.The population growth shifts among the regions on each level are different,the regions' level is higher,the population growth shift is lower,and the population distribution is inclined to more stable.Since 1990,on the condition of the market economy,although competition to attract the population,especially the high quality population,is very heat among the cities in the Changjiang River Delta,the difference of the population growth speeds of these cities is decreased and the centralization of population distribution comes down.Because of the variety of the position and function in the whole region,the traffic condition,and the level of the economic and social development,etc.,Shanghai City,the capitals of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province get more population growth shift in the study period,and the population is continuously centralized to these cities in this period.Anyway,since the beginning of the reform and open-up of China,the distribution of population among the cities in the region of the Changjiang River Delta has come through the visible change,which are mainly droved by the economic and social development,and it is also significantly affected by the policy of the regional population management.