Declining realisation of reproductive intentions with age
Declining realisation of reproductive intentions with age
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DOI：
10.1093/humrep/dez150
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发表时间：
2019-10-01
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Sobotka, Tomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Beaujouan, Eva;Reimondos, Anna;Sobotka, Tomas
研究问题：对于有强烈短期生育意愿的男性和女性来说，在4年内生孩子的可能性有多大？年龄是如何影响这一可能性的？总结答案：对于女性来说，实现生育意图的可能性从35岁开始急剧下降：年龄的影响很弱，对男性来说并不显著。已经知道的是：男性和女性正在推迟生育到更晚的年龄。对于女性来说，这一趋势与生育计划因不孕不育和妊娠并发症的增加而无法实现的风险更高相关。研究设计、规模、持续时间：这项研究分析了澳大利亚具有全国代表性的家庭、收入和劳动力动态(HILDA)调查的两波数据。2011年采访的分析样本包括447名年龄在18-45岁的男性和528名年龄在18-41岁的女性。这些受访者表达了在未来3年内要孩子的强烈意愿。我们在2015年对他们进行了跟踪调查，以跟踪他们的生育意图是否已经实现或修订。部分资料、背景、方法：使用多项Logistic回归分析来说明三种可能的结果：(I)有孩子，(Ii)没有孩子但将来仍打算要孩子，(Iii)没有孩子且不再打算要孩子。我们分析了年龄、产次、伴侣状况、教育程度、受孕能力、自我健康状况、体重指数和吸烟状况与实现或改变生育意图之间的关系。主要结果和偶然性的作用：几乎三分之二的男性和女性在4年内实现了他们强大的短期生育计划。在35岁左右的女性中，生育意愿的实现随着年龄的增长而急剧下降，而男性在45岁之前拥有他们想要的孩子的可能性相对较高。年龄在38-41岁之间、计划要孩子的女性最有可能在4年内改变计划。已婚和受过高等教育的男性和女性以及有一个孩子的人实现生育意图的可能性最高。限制，谨慎的理由：我们的研究无法区分没有实现生育意图的生物、社会和文化原因。男性和女性根据他们的实际情况调整他们的意图，但也符合他们感知的生育能力或受更广泛的社会规范对生育年龄的影响。研究结果的广泛影响：我们的研究结果为男性和女性实现生育计划的能力提供了一个新的视角，在推迟生育的背景下，他们证实了延迟生育在男性和女性个体后果上的不平等。他们让医生和咨询师了解较高生育年龄妇女在生育方面存在的复杂的生物、社会和规范障碍。
STUDY QUESTION: What is the likelihood of having a child within 4 years for men and women with strong short-term reproductive intentions, and how is it affected by age?SUMMARY ANSWER: For women, the likelihood of realising reproductive intentions decreased steeply from age 35: the effect of age was weak and not significant for men.WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Men and women are postponing childbearing until later ages. For women, this trend is associated with a higher risk that childbearing plans will not be realised due to increased levels of infertility and pregnancy complications.STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This study analyses two waves of the nationally representative Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. The analytical sample interviewed in 2011 included 447 men aged 18-45 and 528 women aged 18-41. These respondents expressed a strong intention to have a child in the next 3 years. We followed them up in 2015 to track whether their reproductive intention was achieved or revised.PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTINGS, METHODS: Multinomial logistic regression is used to account for the three possible outcomes: (i) having a child, (ii) not having a child but still intending to have one in the future and (iii) not having a child and no longer intending to have one. We analyse how age, parity, partnership status, education, perceived ability to conceive, self-rated health, BMI and smoking status are related to realising or changing reproductive intentions.MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Almost two-thirds of men and women realised their strong short-term fertility plans within 4 years. There was a steep age-related decline in realising reproductive intentions for women in their mid- and late-30s, whereas men maintained a relatively high probability of having the child they intended until age 45. Women aged 38-41 who planned to have a child were the most likely to change their plan within 4 years. The probability of realising reproductive intention was highest for married and highly educated men and women and for those with one child.LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our study cannot separate biological, social and cultural reasons for not realising reproductive intentions. Men and women adjust their intentions in response to their actual circumstances, but also in line with their perceived ability to have a child or under the influence of broader social norms on reproductive age.WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our results give a new perspective on the ability of men and women to realise their reproductive plans in the context of childbearing postponement They confirm the inequality in the individual consequences of delayed reproduction between men and women. They inform medical practitioners and counsellors about the complex biological, social and normative barriers to reproduction among women at higher childbearing ages.