Future circulation changes off West Antarctica: Sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Low to projected anthropogenic forcing
Future circulation changes off West Antarctica: Sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Low to projected anthropogenic forcing
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DOI：
10.1002/2015gl067143
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发表时间：
2016-01-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Turner, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hosking, J. Scott;Orr, Andrew;Turner, John
阿蒙森海低压（ASL）是南极西部气候变率的主要驱动因素，有可能加速冰川的消融。利用11个最可靠地模拟ASL位置季节性的全球气候模式，利用CMIP5历史（1951-2000）和代表性浓度路径实验RCP8.5（2051-2100）评估ASL对预估未来变化的敏感性。我们首次表明，未来的ASL可能会在夏季（12月、1月和2月）和秋季（3月、4月和5月）向极地迁移，在秋季和冬季（6月、7月和8月）向东迁移。秋冬的变化使罗斯海的南风更冷，而南极半岛的北风更温暖。这与ERA-Interim再分析经向风（1979-2014）和重建温度（1957-2006）的近期趋势一致，表明人为强迫对ASL的影响可能对南极西部气候变率的过去和未来模式都起重要作用。
The Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) is a major driver of West Antarctic climate variability, with the potential to accelerate the loss of glacial ice. Using the 11 global climate models which most reliably simulate the seasonality in ASL location, we assess the ASL sensitivity to projected future changes using the CMIP5 historical (1951-2000) and representative concentration pathway experiment RCP8.5 (2051-2100). For the first time, we show that the future ASL will likely migrate poleward in summer (December, January, and February) and autumn (March, April, and May), and eastward in autumn and winter (June, July, and August). The autumn-winter changes drive colder southerly winds over the Ross Sea and warmer northerly winds toward the Antarctic Peninsula. This is consistent with recent trends in ERA-Interim reanalysis meridional winds (1979-2014) and reconstructed temperature (1957-2006), suggesting that the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the ASL is likely to play an important role on both past and future patterns of West Antarctic climate variability.