The role of transport electrification in global climate change mitigation scenarios
The role of transport electrification in global climate change mitigation scenarios
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab6658
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发表时间：
2020-02
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Runsen Zhang;S. Fujimori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Runsen Zhang;S. Fujimori
电气化被广泛认为是减少对石油的依赖和公路运输对环境影响的一个有吸引力的解决方案。许多国家一直在制定越来越严格和雄心勃勃的目标，以支持运输电气化。我们进行了情景模拟，以描述交通电气化在缓解气候变化方面的作用，以及交通部门将如何与能源供应部门互动。结果表明，不替代化石燃料发电厂的交通电气化导致了排放增加而不是实现低碳过渡的不幸结果。虽然运输电气化本身无助于减缓气候变化，但值得注意的是，在可持续的共享社会经济路径下转用电气化公路运输，即使在没有脱碳电力部门的情况下，也可以实现低碳过渡的乐观前景。另一个有趣的发现是，电动汽车的严格普及可以减少2摄氏度气候稳定目标产生的缓解成本，这意味着运输政策对经济体系产生了积极影响。有了电气化道路运输等技术创新，缓解气候变化不一定是以牺牲经济增长为代价的。由于交通电气化政策与能源和经济系统密切互动，交通规划者、经济学家和能源政策制定者需要共同努力，提出考虑跨部门平衡的政策方案，以实现绿色可持续的未来。
Electrification is widely considered an attractive solution for reducing the oil dependency and environmental impact of road transportation. Many countries have been establishing increasingly stringent and ambitious targets in support of transport electrification. We conducted scenario simulations to depict the role of transport electrification in climate change mitigation and how the transport sector would interact with the energy-supply sector. The results showed that transport electrification without the replacement of fossil-fuel power plants leads to the unfortunate result of increasing emissions instead of achieving a low-carbon transition. While transport electrification alone would not contribute to climate change mitigation, it is interesting to note that switching to electrified road transport under the sustainable shared socioeconomic pathways permitted an optimistic outlook for a low-carbon transition, even in the absence of a decarbonized power sector. Another interesting finding was that the stringent penetration of electric vehicles can reduce the mitigation cost generated by the 2 °C climate stabilization target, implying a positive impact for transport policies on the economic system. With technological innovations such as electrified road transport, climate change mitigation does not have to occur at the expense of economic growth. Because a transport electrification policy closely interacts with energy and economic systems, transport planners, economists, and energy policymakers need to work together to propose policy schemes that consider a cross-sectoral balance for a green sustainable future.