An epidemiological model for West Nile virus: invasion analysis and control applications
An epidemiological model for West Nile virus: invasion analysis and control applications
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2003.2608
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发表时间：
2004-03-07
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Lewis, MA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wonham, MJ;de-Camino-Beck, T;Lewis, MA
传染病带来了生态和公共卫生方面的挑战，可以通过数学模型来解决。然而，某些病原体，包括北美新出现的西尼罗河病毒（WN），表现出复杂的季节性生态，不容易用标准流行病学方法进行分析。我们开发了一个单一的季节无传染性去除（SIR）模型WN之间的交叉感染鸟类和蚊子，结合特有的WN生态的具体功能。我们获得了疾病繁殖数，R-0，并表明蚊子控制减少，但鸟类控制增加，爆发的机会。我们提供了一个简单的新的分析和图形的方法来确定，从标准的公共卫生指标，必要的蚊子控制水平。我们将这种方法扩展到季节性变化的蚊子种群，并概述了多年的模型框架。该模型的数值模拟预测的疾病水平与独立数据一致。
Infectious diseases present ecological and public health challenges that can be addressed with mathematical models. Certain pathogens, however, including the emerging West Nile virus (WN) in North America, exhibit a complex seasonal ecology that is not readily analysed with standard epidemiological methods. We develop a single-season susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model of WN cross-infection between birds and mosquitoes, incorporating specific features unique to WN ecology. We obtain the disease reproduction number, R-0, and show that mosquito control decreases, but bird control increases, the chance of an outbreak. We provide a simple new analytical and graphical method for determining, from standard public health indicators, necessary mosquito control levels. We extend this method to a seasonally variable mosquito population and outline a multi-year model framework. The model's numerical simulations predict disease levels that are consistent with independent data.