Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US
Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US
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DOI：
10.1016/j.foreco.2011.03.036
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发表时间：
2011-08-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Young, Nicholas E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Evangelista, Paul H.;Kumar, Sunil;Young, Nicholas E.
我们的研究的目的是估计森林的脆弱性和潜在的分布三树皮甲虫（小蠹科：小蠹亚科）在当前和预测的气候条件下，2020年和2050年。我们的研究集中在山地松甲虫（Dendroctonus ponderosae），西部松甲虫（Dendroctonus brevicomis），和松树雕刻（Ips pini）。这项研究在美国内陆西部的八个州进行，覆盖约220万公里（2），包括美国本土落基山脉的95%。我们的分析依赖于1991年至2008年发生的树皮甲虫爆发的空中调查。每个物种的发生点都是在从空中调查中创建的多边形内生成的。当前和预测的气候情景是从WorldClim数据库中获得的，由19个生物气候变量表示。我们使用Maxent建模技术与发生点和当前气候数据拟合，以模拟潜在的甲虫分布和森林脆弱性。三个可用的气候模型，每个有两个排放情景，独立建模，结果平均产生两个预测2020年和两个预测2050年的每一个分析。然后利用现有气候模式定义的环境参数预测未来气候情景下的条件，并计算不同物种活动范围的变化。我们的研究结果表明，在目前的气候条件下，小蠹的潜在分布是广泛的，这与过去十年观察到的侵扰趋势相吻合。我们的研究结果预测，在未来的气候条件下，山松甲虫和松树雕刻甲虫的适宜栖息地将稳定或减少，而西部松甲虫的栖息地将继续增加随着时间的推移。栖息地面积增加最多的是西部松甲虫，一个气候模型预测到2050年将增加27%。相比之下，另一个气候模型预测的山松甲虫栖息地表明，到2050年，栖息地面积将减少46%。一般来说，2020年和2050年独立测试三种气候情景的模型具有相似的趋势，尽管西部松甲虫的一种气候情景产生了相反的结果。所有三种树皮甲虫的范围在地理上发生了相当大的变化，这表明一些宿主物种在未来可能会变得更容易受到甲虫的攻击，而另一些宿主物种的风险可能会随着时间的推移而降低。(C)2011 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。
The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2 million km(2) and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.