Trend of stroke incidence in a Japanese population: Takashima stroke registry, 1990-2001
Trend of stroke incidence in a Japanese population: Takashima stroke registry, 1990-2001
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1747-4949.2009.00293.x
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发表时间：
2009-08-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Ueshima, H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kita, Y.;Turin, T. C.;Ueshima, H.
背景在日本，中风死亡率和发病率在20世纪60年代开始下降。风险因素最近出现不利的分化趋势，使人无法确定这种下降是否会继续下去。几个全面的中风登记研究的长期存在，在日本，以说明中风发病率的趋势。我们研究了12年的中风登记数据，以评估目前的趋势，在日本population.MethodsData从高岛中风登记处，约55 000名居民高岛县在日本中部。我们计算了1990-1992年、1993-1995年、1996-1998年和1999-2001年年龄校正的卒中发病率（/10万人-年）和95%置信区间。我们采用直接法调整四个时期的年龄分布。发病率的时间趋势，通过计算平均每年的变化，在整个研究年使用负二项回归analysis.ResultsThere有1453（男性：771和女性：682）登记首次中风病例在1990-2001年。神经影像学诊断93例，占6%。平均年龄男性69岁，女性74岁。在四个观察期内，年龄校正的卒中发病率为143中心点1。（置信区间：127中心点4-158中心点8）1990-1992年，147中心点4（置信区间：131中心点9-162中心点8）1993-1995年，120中心点4（置信区间：106个中心点7-134个中心点0），1999-2001年为122个中心点9（置信区间：109个中心点6-136个中心点2）。研究年份的卒中发病率显示出不显著的时间趋势，平均每年变化为-0中心点33%（置信区间：-2中心点44至1中心点78）。观察到类似的趋势，为男性和女性和中风subtypes.ConclusionsThe以前报道的中风发病率下降的趋势可能已经趋于平稳或放缓，大大在日本人口。
BackgroundIn Japan, stroke mortality and incidence started to decline during the 1960s. The recent unfavourably diverging trends in risk factors make it uncertain whether the decline will continue. Few comprehensive stroke registries of long research duration exist in Japan to illustrate the trends in stroke incidence.ObjectiveWe examined 12-year stroke registration data to evaluate the current trend in a Japanese population.MethodsData were obtained from the Takashima Stroke Registry, covering approximately 55 000 residents of Takashima County in central Japan. We calculated the age-adjusted stroke incidence rates (/100 000 person-years) and 95% confidence intervals for 1990-1992, 1993-1995, 1996-1998, and 1999-2001. We applied the direct method to adjust for the age distribution among the four periods. The incidence time trend was determined by calculating the average annual change across the study years using negative binomial regression analysis.ResultsThere were 1453 (men: 771 and women: 682) registered first-ever stroke cases during 1990-2001. The diagnosis was established by neuro-imaging in 93 center dot 6% of the cases. The average age was 69 center dot 4 years in men and 74 center dot 2 years in women. The age-adjusted incidence rates of stroke across the four observation periods were 143 center dot 1 (confidence interval: 127 center dot 4-158 center dot 8) in 1990-1992, 147 center dot 4 (confidence interval: 131 center dot 9-162 center dot 8) in 1993-1995, 120 center dot 4 (confidence interval: 106 center dot 7-134 center dot 0) in 1996-1998, and 122 center dot 9 (confidence interval: 109 center dot 6-136 center dot 2) in 1999-2001. The stroke incidence across the study years showed an insignificant time trend, with an average annual change of -0 center dot 33% (confidence interval: -2 center dot 44 to 1 center dot 78) per year. Similar trends were observed for both men and women and stroke subtypes.ConclusionsThe previously reported declining trend in stroke incidence may have levelled off or slowed down considerably in the Japanese population.