Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies
Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.004
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发表时间：
2015-07-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Preston, Benjamin L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Absar, Syeda Mariya;Preston, Benjamin L.
探索替代的社会经济未来是理解气候变化潜在后果的一个重要方面。虽然社会经济情景是影响、适应和脆弱性以及综合评估建模研究界常用的工具，有时也是必不可少的工具，但它们制定情景的方法历来十分独特。然而，影响、适应和脆弱性以及综合评估模型研究在分析尺度方面的日益趋同表明，为社会经济情景制定一个共同框架可能是有价值的。共同的社会经济途径为制定这样一个共同框架提供了机会。然而，这些全球故事情节的发展规模在很大程度上与影响、适应和脆弱性以及越来越多的综合评估模型研究所进行的次国家规模不相称。本研究的目的是开发全球SSP故事情节的次国家和部门扩展，以确定美国东南部未来适应的社会经济挑战。一套嵌套的定性社会经济故事情节元素，综合故事情节，并伴随着定量指标的开发，通过应用的因素，演员，部门框架。除了揭示与使用SSP作为更精确的情景开发基础相关的挑战和机遇外，这项研究还生成了次国家故事情节元素和故事情节，随后可用于探索替代性次国家社会经济未来对评估气候变化影响和适应的影响。(C)2015爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impacts, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However, the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impacts, adaptation and vulnerability and, increasingly, integrated assessment modeling studies are conducted. The objective of this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. In addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative sub-national socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.