Public Reactions to Risk Messages Communicating Different Sources of Uncertainty: An Experimental Test
Public Reactions to Risk Messages Communicating Different Sources of Uncertainty: An Experimental Test
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DOI：
10.1080/10807039.2012.702015
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发表时间：
2013-07-04
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Lemyre, Louise
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Markon, Marie-Pierre L.;Lemyre, Louise
关于在专家的风险评估中整合不确定性的挑战，有大量的文献，但关于公众如何理解不确定性的证据很少，而且参差不齐。本研究旨在更好地了解风险沟通中不同不确定性来源的沟通效果。采用因果设计来测试不同类型的咨询警告（无风险，建议不采取保护措施，或有风险，建议采取保护措施）和不确定性来源（无不确定性，专家意见分歧，数据矛盾，或缺乏数据）传达风险信息对公众反应的影响。来自公众的参与者（N = 434）被随机分配阅读并对虚构的政府信息的变体做出反应，该信息讨论了自来水中发现的一种新微生物的存在。多元方差分析表明，报告专家分歧或矛盾数据的不确定性会降低对信息的依从性，但更不用说缺乏数据。此外，当咨询警告指出存在风险并建议采取保护措施时，各种不确定性来源的沟通并不影响对政府的信任。这些发现对风险沟通具有重要意义。
There is an abundant literature on the challenge of integrating uncertainties in experts' risk assessments, but the evidence on the way they are understood by the public is scarce and mixed. This study aims to better understand the effect of communicating different sources of uncertainty in risk communication. A causal design was employed to test the effect of communicating risk messages varying in type of advisory warning (no risk and suggests no protective measure, or risk and recommends a protective measure) and sources of uncertainty (no uncertainty, divergence between experts, contradictory data, or lack of data) on public reactions. Participants from the general public (N = 434) were randomly assigned to read and react to variants of a fictitious government message discussing the presence of a new micro-organism found in tap water. Multiple analysis of variance showed that to report uncertainty from divergence between experts or from contradictory data reduced the adherence to the message, but not to mention the lack of data. Moreover, the communication of diverse sources of uncertainty did not affect trust in the government when the advisory warning stated there was a risk and recommended a protective measure. These findings have important implications for risk communication.