Toward impact-based monitoring of drought and its cascading hazards
Toward impact-based monitoring of drought and its cascading hazards
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DOI：
10.1038/s43017-023-00457-2
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发表时间：
2023-08
影响因子：
42.1
通讯作者：
A. Aghakouchak;L. Huning;M. Sadegh;Yue Qin;Y. Markonis;F. Vahedifard;C. Love;A. Mishra;A. Me
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文献类型：
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作者：
A. Aghakouchak;L. Huning;M. Sadegh;Yue Qin;Y. Markonis;F. Vahedifard;C. Love;A. Mishra;A. Me
卫星观测和建模能力的增长改变了干旱监测，提供了接近实时的信息。然而，目前的监测工作侧重于灾害而不是影响，而且与热浪、野火、洪水和泥石流等与干旱有关的复合或级联灾害进一步脱节。在这方面，我们提倡基于影响的干旱监测，并与更广泛的干旱相关危害相结合。基于影响的监测将超越自上而下的灾害信息，将干旱与作物产量、粮食供应、能源生产或失业等物理或社会影响联系起来。这种方法，特别是干旱事件影响的预测，将因此有利于参与干旱规划、风险和应对管理的多个利益攸关方，对粮食和水安全有明显的好处。然而，由于缺乏一致的干旱影响数据，关于影响水供应的当地因素（包括水需求、转移和提取）的信息有限，以及影响评估模型与干旱监测工具脱节，这些因素阻碍了采用和执行。因此，实施基于影响的干旱监测需要使用新的遥感器，提供干旱相关领域的大量标准化数据，并采用人工智能来提取和综合干旱对物理和社会的影响。
Growth in satellite observations and modelling capabilities has transformed drought monitoring, offering near-real-time information. However, current monitoring efforts focus on hazards rather than impacts, and are further disconnected from drought-related compound or cascading hazards such as heatwaves, wildfires, floods and debris flows. In this Perspective, we advocate for impact-based drought monitoring and integration with broader drought-related hazards. Impact-based monitoring will go beyond top-down hazard information, linking drought to physical or societal impacts such as crop yield, food availability, energy generation or unemployment. This approach, specifically forecasts of drought event impacts, would accordingly benefit multiple stakeholders involved in drought planning, and risk and response management, with clear benefits for food and water security. Yet adoption and implementation is hindered by the absence of consistent drought impact data, limited information on local factors affecting water availability (including water demand, transfer and withdrawal), and impact assessment models being disconnected from drought monitoring tools. Implementation of impact-based drought monitoring thus requires the use of newly available remote sensors, the availability of large volumes of standardized data across drought-related fields, and the adoption of artificial intelligence to extract and synthesize physical and societal drought impacts.