Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy Is Less Powerful in Recessions
Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy Is Less Powerful in Recessions
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DOI：
10.1257/mac.20150016
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发表时间：
2016-10-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Thwaites, Gregory
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tenreyro, Silvana;Thwaites, Gregory
我们研究了美国经济对货币政策冲击的反应如何取决于商业周期的状态。货币政策的影响在衰退中不那么强大，特别是对耐用品支出和商业投资。这种不对称性与经济增长速度有关，而与资源利用水平无关。有证据表明，财政政策在经济衰退时抵消了货币政策的作用，但在经济繁荣时却强化了货币政策。我们还发现证据表明，紧缩性政策冲击比扩张性冲击更强大，但紧缩性冲击并没有在繁荣时期更常见。因此，这种不对称性不能解释我们的主要发现。
We investigate how the response of the US economy to monetary policy shocks depends on the state of the business cycle. The effects of monetary policy are less powerful in recessions, especially for durables expenditure and business investment. The asymmetry relates to how fast the economy is growing, rather than to the level of resource utilization. There is some evidence that fiscal policy has counteracted monetary policy in recessions but reinforced it in booms. We also find evidence that contractionary policy shocks are more powerful than expansionary shocks, but contractionary shocks have not been more common in booms. So this asymmetry cannot explain our main finding.