On the creation of future probabilistic design weather years from UKCP09
On the creation of future probabilistic design weather years from UKCP09
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DOI：
10.1177/0143624410379934
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发表时间：
2011-05-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Coley, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eames, M.;Kershaw, T.;Coley, D.
建筑科学家和工程师广泛使用天气数据来研究其设计的性能，帮助比较设计方案并确保符合建筑法规。鉴于气候变化，需要提供未来几年的数据，以便执业工程师能够调查气候变化对特定设计的影响，并检查调试客户可能面临的任何风险。此外，此类文件还可帮助建筑科学家开发针对内部温度升高和热舒适度差等问题的通用解决方案。随着英国气候预测 (UKCP09) 的发布，可以创建直至 2080 年的未来几年的此类数据，并通过使用天气生成器对气候变化进行各种概率预测。在这里，我们讨论一种创建在热模型中使用的未来概率参考年的方法。此外，还根据 UKCIP02 预测与当前的未来天气年进行了比较。当在建筑物的动态热模拟中使用时，由当前的未来天气文件集创建的内部环境位于由天气生成器生成的概率参考年创建的内部环境的范围内。因此，天气生成器的主要优点在于其潜在的更大空间分辨率、为风险分析提供信息的能力，以及与基于观测数据的文件不同，此类文件不具有版权。 实际应用：本文中介绍的方法将允许学者和建筑工程师使用 UKCP09 天气生成器的未来气候数据创建真实的每小时未来天气文件。这将允许创建一致的未来天气年，用于建筑热模拟等领域。
Weather data are used extensively by building scientists and engineers to study the performance of their designs, help compare design alternatives and ensure compliance with building regulations. Given a changing climate, there is a need to provide data for future years so that practising engineers can investigate the impact of climate change on particular designs and examine any risk the commissioning client might be exposed to. In addition, such files are of use to building scientists in developing generic solutions to problems such as elevated internal temperatures and poor thermal comfort. With the publication of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) such data can be created for future years up to 2080 and for various probabilistic projections of climate change by the use of a weather generator. Here, we discuss a method for the creation of future probabilistic reference years for use within thermal models. In addition, a comparison is made with the current set of future weather years based on the UKCIP02 projections. When used within a dynamic thermal simulation of a building, the internal environments created by the current set of future weather files lie within the range of the internal environments created by the probabilistic reference years generated by the weather generator. Hence, the main advantages of the weather generator are seen to lie in its potentially greater spatial resolution, its ability to inform risk analysis and that such files, unlike ones based on observed data, carry no copyright.Practical applications: The methodology presented in this article will allow academics and buildings engineers to create realistic hourly future weather files using the future climate data of UKCP09 weather generator. This will allow the creation of consistent future weather years for use in areas such as building thermal simulation.