A Solution to the Missing Globalization Puzzle by Non‐CES Preferences
A Solution to the Missing Globalization Puzzle by Non‐CES Preferences
复制标题
通过非 CES 偏好来解决缺失的全球化难题
DOI：
10.1111/roie.12278
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Yilmazkuday
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Yilmazkuday
改善全球化福利的一个渠道是通过贸易的日益一体化。虽然这是由于国家之间距离的影响越来越小，但重力的主力模型未能捕捉到它，即所谓的全球化或距离之谜。8221;本文表明，这一难题可能是由于限制性假设的恒定替代弹性（CES）的偏好背后的重力模型。我们测试了这一假设的有效性，为不同的贸易间隔，并表明它是违反的结果，贸易的距离弹性随着贸易量的减少。因此，我们考虑了一种类型的非CES效用函数，即常数绝对风险版本（CARA），并分析表明，贸易和贸易的距离弹性之间的负关系是由CARA偏好捕获。我们估计了CARA偏好所隐含的引力方程，实证证实了贸易与贸易距离弹性之间的内生关系，并表明在CARA偏好下距离之谜得到了解决。根据所使用的数据集，CARA偏好也是根据其拟合优度在计量经济学上选择的。
One channel of welfare‐improving globalization is through the increasing integration of trade. Although this is attributed to decreasing effects of distance across countries, the workhorse models of gravity fail to capture it, the so‐called “missing globalization” or “distance puzzle.” This paper shows that this puzzle may be due to the restricting assumption of constant elasticity of substitution (CES) preferences working behind the gravity models. We test the validity of this assumption for different trade intervals and show that it is violated as a result of the distance elasticity of trade decreasing with the amount of trade. Accordingly, we consider a type of non‐CES utility function, namely constant absolute risk version (CARA), and analytically show that the negative relation between trade and distance elasticity of trade is captured by CARA preferences. We estimate the gravity equation implied by CARA preferences, empirically confirm the endogenous relation between trade and distance elasticity of trade, and show that the distance puzzle is solved under CARA preferences. According to the data set used, CARA preferences are also econometrically selected over CES preferences based on their goodness of fit.