The Electoral Implications of Candidate Ambiguity
The Electoral Implications of Candidate Ambiguity
复制标题
候选人模糊性对选举的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
R. Houweling
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael Tomz;R. Houweling
候选人经常对他们打算推行的政策做出模棱两可的陈述。从理论上讲，模糊性影响选民如何做出选择以及谁赢得选举。在实践中，测量和内涵问题阻碍了对歧义后果的实证研究。我们进行了调查实验，通过操纵一种常见的模糊形式来克服这些障碍：候选位置的不精确性。我们的数据表明，平均而言，模糊性并不排斥，事实上，可能会吸引选民。在无党派背景下，对风险持中立或积极态度的选民，或者对自己的政策偏好感到不确定的选民，倾向于接受模糊性。在党派背景下，选民对模糊性的反应更加积极;他们乐观地感知来自自己政党的模糊候选人的位置，而不会悲观地感知来自反对党的模糊候选人的位置。我们进一步发现，通过分析另外两个新的数据集，候选人经常采取和选民经常感知模糊的立场，就像我们的实验。竞选活动中模糊性的普遍使用符合我们的实验发现，即模糊性可以是一种获胜策略，特别是在党派选举中。
Candidates often make ambiguous statements about the policies they intend to pursue. In theory, ambiguity affects how voters make choices and who wins elections. In practice, measurement and endogeneity problems have impeded empirical research about the consequences of ambiguity. We conducted survey experiments that overcame these obstacles by manipulating a common form of ambiguity: the imprecision of candidate positions. Our data show that, on average, ambiguity does not repel and may, in fact, attract voters. In nonpartisan settings, voters who have neutral or positive attitudes toward risk, or who feel uncertain about their own policy preferences, tend to embrace ambiguity. In partisan settings, voters respond even more positively to ambiguity; they optimistically perceive the locations of ambiguous candidates from their own party without pessimistically perceiving the locations of vague candidates from the opposition. We further find, through analysis of two additional new data sets, that candidates often take—and voters frequently perceive—ambiguous positions like the ones in our experiments. The pervasive use of ambiguity in campaigns fits with our experimental finding that ambiguity can be a winning strategy, especially in partisan elections.