Influence of RMB Cross-border Settlement on the Chinese Economy
Influence of RMB Cross-border Settlement on the Chinese Economy
复制标题
人民币跨境结算对中国经济的影响
DOI：
10.1111/cwe.12146
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
He Fan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xu Qiyuan;He Fan
2014年，人民币跨境结算金额达到7.6万亿元人民币。评估人民币国际化对中国宏观经济的潜在影响非常重要。在本研究中，我们建立了一个包含货币供给和需求的框架来分析人民币跨境结算对中国国内利率、资产价格和外汇储备的影响。研究发现，不同国际收支项目的人民币结算对中国实体经济和金融市场的影响有很大差异。在此基础上，本文提出了人民币国际化的政策重点框架，并将人民币跨境结算项目划分为三个不同重点的类别。同时，为支持人民币国际化，应优先推进汇率改革，并对资本项目自由化保持审慎态度。
In 2014, the amount of RMB cross‐border settlement had reached RMB7.6tn. It is important to evaluate the potential influence of RMB internationalization on China's macroeconomy. In the present study, a framework that includes monetary supply and demand was created to analyze the influences of RMB cross‐border settlement on China's domestic interest rate, asset price and foreign exchange reserves. It is found that RMB settlement in different BOP items leads to very different effects on China's real economy and the financial market. Based on the analysis, we provide a framework of the policy priorities for RMB internationalization, with the RMB cross‐border settlement items divided into three groups with different priorities. Meanwhile, to support RMB internationalization, exchange rate reforms should be adopted as a priority and a prudent attitude maintained regarding capital account liberalization.