When less is more: limits to international transfers under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
When less is more: limits to international transfers under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
复制标题
DOI：
10.1080/14693062.2018.1540341
复制
发表时间：
2019-04-21
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
Broekhoff, Derik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Theuer, Stephanie La Hoz;Schneider, Lambert;Broekhoff, Derik
国际碳市场可以成为各国实现《巴黎协定》减排目标的一个重要工具，但也面临着一些环境完整性风险。一个重要的风险是，一些国家的减排目标所对应的排放水平高于对其可能排放量的独立预测。如果这种“热空气”可以转移到其他国家，它可能会增加总排放量，并为各国不提高未来减排目标的雄心创造不正当的激励。为应对这一风险，有人提议限制缓解成果的国际转让。本文提出了一种类型的限制，探讨关键的设计方案，并测试不同类型的限制在15个国家的背景下。我们的分析表明，如果设计得当，对国际转移的限制可以防止当前减排目标中包含的大部分热空气被转移，但也涉及不同政策目标之间的权衡。鉴于热空气国际转移的风险以及其他方法是否能有效确保环境完整性的不确定性，我们建议各国采取谨慎的做法，并采取一系列方法来确保环境完整性，在这种情况下，限制可以提供额外的保障。
International carbon markets can be an important tool in achieving countries' mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement, but they are subject to a number of environmental integrity risks. An important risk is that some countries have mitigation targets that correspond to higher levels of emissions than independent projections of their likely emissions. If such 'hot air' can be transferred to other countries, it could increase aggregated emissions and create a perverse incentive for countries not to enhance the ambition of future mitigation targets. Limits to international transfers of mitigation outcomes have been proposed to address this risk. This article proposes a typology for such limits, explores key design options, and tests different types of limits in the context of 15 countries. Our analysis indicates that limits to international transfers could, if designed appropriately, prevent most of the hot air contained in current mitigation targets from being transferred, but also involve trade-offs between different policy objectives. Given the risks from international transfer of hot air and the uncertainty over whether other approaches will be effective in ensuring environmental integrity, we recommend that countries take a cautious approach and pursue a portfolio of approaches to ensure environmental integrity, in which case limits could provide for additional safeguards.