RISK BEHAVIOR-BASED MODEL OF THE CUBIC GROWTH OF ACQUIRED IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME IN THE UNITED-STATES
RISK BEHAVIOR-BASED MODEL OF THE CUBIC GROWTH OF ACQUIRED IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME IN THE UNITED-STATES
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.86.12.4793
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发表时间：
1989-06-01
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
QUALLS, C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
COLGATE, SA;STANLEY, EA;QUALLS, C
美国获得性免疫缺陷综合征（艾滋病）病例的累积数量是以时间的立方而不是指数增长的。我们解释这一点的相互作用，涉及合作伙伴的选择和性频率的风险行为模型有偏见的混合。这导致了从高风险群体向低风险群体转移的感染饱和波。如果这种描述是正确的，那么艾滋病病例增长率的下降并不是因为行为的改变，而是由于这种疾病内在的流行病学。
The cumulative number of cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the United States has grown as the cube of time rather than exponentially. We explain this by interactions involving partner choice and sexual frequency in a risk-behavior model with biased mixing. This leads to a saturation wave of infection moving from high- to low-risk groups. If this description is correct, then the decreasing growth rate of AIDS cases is not due to behavior changes; rather it is due to the intrinsic epidemiology of the disease.