Flood risk behaviors of United States riverine metropolitan areas are driven by local hydrology and shaped by race
Flood risk behaviors of United States riverine metropolitan areas are driven by local hydrology and shaped by race
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2016839118
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发表时间：
2021-03-30
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Elliott, Rebecca
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Knighton, James;Hondula, Kelly;Elliott, Rebecca
洪水风险是由水文灾害（例如，暴雨期间的河流泛滥）、暴露、脆弱性（例如，潜在的结构性破坏或生命损失）和复原力（我们如何恢复，从过去的洪水中学习和适应）。建立在这些复杂的相互作用最近耦合的概念化，我们的特点是人与洪水的相互作用（集体记忆和风险承受态度），比迄今为止在美国50个大都市统计区尝试的更全面的规模，使用可访问的当地数据校准的社会水文（SH）模型（年洪峰流量、洪水保险损失索赔、现行保险单记录和人口密度的历史记录）。通过对SH模型参数集的聚类分析，确定了两种主要行为：1）"风险承受型"城市，洪水防御能力较低，对过去洪水损失事件的记忆较长; 2）"风险厌恶型"城市，洪水防御能力较高，对过去洪水的记忆减少。这些发散行为与局部流闪光指数的差异相关（即，流量每日变化的频率和速度）、最大坝高以及美国大都市地区白色居民与非白色居民的比例。厌恶风险的城市往往存在于以山洪暴发的水流条件、更大的水坝和更大比例的白色居民为特征的地区。我们的研究支持城市大都市地区的SH模型的发展和风险管理策略的设计，考虑人口统计异质性的人口，不断变化的防洪，以及社区风险认知和容忍度的时间变化。
Flooding risk results from complex interactions between hydrological hazards (e.g., riverine inundation during periods of heavy rainfall), exposure, vulnerability (e.g., the potential for structural damage or loss of life), and resilience (how well we recover, learn from, and adapt to past floods). Building on recent coupled conceptualizations of these complex interactions, we characterize human-flood interactions (collective memory and risk-enduring attitude) at a more comprehensive scale than has been attempted to date across 50 US metropolitan statistical areas with a socio-hydrologic (SH) model calibrated with accessible local data (historical records of annual peak streamflow, flood insurance loss claims, active insurance policy records, and population density). A cluster analysis on calibrated SH model parameter sets for met-ropolitan areas identified two dominant behaviors: 1) "riskenduring" cities with lower flooding defenses and longer memory of past flood loss events and 2) "risk-averse" cities with higher flooding defenses and reduced memory of past flooding. These divergent behaviors correlated with differences in local stream flashiness indices (i.e., the frequency and rapidity of daily changes in streamflow), maximum dam heights, and the proportion of White to non-White residents in US metropolitan areas. Risk-averse cities tended to exist within regions characterized by flashier streamflow conditions, larger dams, and larger proportions of White residents. Our research supports the development of SH models in urban metropolitan areas and the design of risk management strategies that consider both demographically hetero-geneous populations, changing flood defenses, and temporal changes in community risk perceptions and tolerance.