Fiscal Responses after Catastrophes and the Enabling Role of Financial Development
Fiscal Responses after Catastrophes and the Enabling Role of Financial Development
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灾难后的财政反应和金融发展的促进作用
DOI：
10.1093/wber/lht041
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Raddatz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Melecký;C. Raddatz
自然灾害可能对公共财政和债务可持续性构成重大冲击，因为它们对产出产生影响，而且政府需要以重建和救济费用作出反应。问题是，政府是否可以利用金融发展政策作为减轻或防止这种负面财政影响的手段。本文使用面板向量自回归模型（panel vector autoregressive model），对1975-2008年高收入和中等收入国家的年度数据进行估计，以研究债务市场发展和保险深度在灾难后财政应对中的作用。作者发现，债务市场发展程度较高的国家遭受灾害的真实的后果较小，但在采取缓解性财政对策后，其赤字进一步扩大。在保险普及率高的国家，灾害的真实的后果也较小，但不需要进一步扩大赤字。从事后的角度来看，提供保险可以提供最佳的减轻灾害的真实的和财政后果的办法。
Natural disasters may constitute a major shock to public finances and debt sustainability because of their impact on output and the need for government response with reconstruction and relief expenses. The question arises of whether governments can use financial development policy as the means to mitigate or insure against this negative fiscal impact. This paper uses a panel vector autoregressive model, estimated on annual data for high- and middle-income countries over 1975–2008, to study the role of debt market development and insurance penetration in enabling fiscal response after catastrophes. The authors find that countries with higher debt market development suffer smaller real consequences from disasters but that their deficits expand further followingthe mitigating fiscal response. Disasters in countries with high insurance penetration also experience smaller real consequences of disasters but without the need for further deficit expansions. From an ex-post perspective, the availability of insurance could offer the best mitigation approach against the real and fiscal consequences of disasters.