Forecasting the global burden of Alzheimer's disease
Forecasting the global burden of Alzheimer's disease
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jalz.2007.04.381
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发表时间：
2007-07-01
影响因子：
14
通讯作者：
Arrighi, H. Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brookmeyer, Ron;Johnson, Elizabeth;Arrighi, H. Michael
背景：我们的目标是预测全球阿尔茨海默病的负担，并评估延迟疾病发病或进展的干预措施的潜在影响。方法：采用随机多状态模型，结合联合国全球人口预测和阿尔茨海默病风险流行病学研究的数据。结果：2006年，全球阿尔茨海默病患病率为2660万。到2050年，患病率将翻两番，到那时，全世界每85人中就有1人患有这种疾病。我们估计大约43%的流行病例需要相当于疗养院的高水平护理。如果干预措施可以将疾病的发病和进展推迟一年，到2050年，阿尔茨海默氏症的病例将减少近920万例，几乎全部下降可归因于需要高水平护理的人数的减少。结论：随着世界人口老龄化，我们面临着一场迫在眉睫的阿尔茨海默病全球流行。治疗和预防战略的适度进展导致阿尔茨海默病的发生和发展即使是很小的延迟，也可以大大减轻这种疾病的全球负担。(C)2007年阿尔茨海默氏症协会。版权所有。
Background: Our goal was to forecast the global burden of Alzheimer's disease and evaluate the potential impact of interventions that delay disease onset or progression.Methods: A stochastic, multistate model was used in conjunction with United Nations worldwide population forecasts and data from epidemiological studies of the risks of Alzheimer's disease.Results: In 2006, the worldwide prevalence of Alzheimer's disease was 26.6 million. By 2050, the prevalence will quadruple, by which time I in 85 persons worldwide will be living with the disease. We estimate about 43% of prevalent cases need a high level of care, equivalent to that of a nursing home. If interventions could delay both disease onset and progression by a modest I year, there would be nearly 9.2 million fewer cases of the disease in 2050, with nearly the entire decline attributable to decreases in persons needing a high level of care.Conclusions: We face a looming global epidemic of Alzheimer's disease as the world's population ages. Modest advances in therapeutic and preventive strategies that lead to even small delays in the onset and progression of Alzheimer's disease can significantly reduce the global burden of this disease. (C) 2007 The Alzheimer's Association. All rights reserved.