Epidemiological impact of waning immunization on a vaccinated population
Epidemiological impact of waning immunization on a vaccinated population
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DOI：
10.1140/epjb/e2018-90136-3
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发表时间：
2018-11-01
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Chattopadhyay, Amit K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Grela, Ewa;Stich, Michael;Chattopadhyay, Amit K.
这是一项基于流行病学SIRV模型的研究，旨在分析疫苗接种对控制感染传播的影响，该研究在一个由易感、感染、恢复和接种疫苗的4层人群隔间中进行。虽然许多模型假设通过接种疫苗可以获得终身保护，但我们关注的是由于接种疫苗和恢复的病原体转化为易感病原体而导致免疫能力下降的影响。存在两种渐近状态，即“无病平衡”和“地方性平衡”，我们将这两种状态之间的过渡表示为疫苗接种率和转换率的函数，并使用基本繁殖数。我们发现，对新生儿和成人接种疫苗对控制流行病有不同的影响。此外，在恢复的亚种群中，疾病保护的衰退不足以在线性水平上引发流行病。我们对一个参数集进行模拟，模拟免疫能力减弱的疾病，如百日咳。对于扩散耦合的种群，向地方性状态的过渡可以通过旅行感染波的传播进行，在Fisher-Kolmogorov框架中成功地描述了这一点。
This is an epidemiological SIRV model based study that is designed to analyze the impact of vaccination in containing infection spread, in a 4-tiered population compartment comprised of susceptible, infected, recovered and vaccinated agents. While many models assume a lifelong protection through vaccination, we focus on the impact of waning immunization due to conversion of vaccinated and recovered agents back to susceptible ones. Two asymptotic states exist, the "disease-free equilibrium" and the "endemic equilibrium" and we express the transitions between these states as function of the vaccination and conversion rates and using the basic reproduction number. We find that the vaccination of newborns and adults have different consequences on controlling an epidemic. Also, a decaying disease protection within the recovered sub-population is not sufficient to trigger an epidemic at the linear level. We perform simulations for a parameter set mimicking a disease with waning immunization like pertussis. For a diffusively coupled population, a transition to the endemic state can proceed via the propagation of a traveling infection wave, described successfully within a Fisher-Kolmogorov framework.