Projection of snow cover changes over China under RCP scenarios
Projection of snow cover changes over China under RCP scenarios
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-012-1473-2
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发表时间：
2012-12
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Zhenming Ji;Shi-chang Kang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhenming Ji;Shi-chang Kang
利用嵌套在全球模型 BCC_CSM1.1 中的区域气候模型研究了中国 21 世纪中叶（2040-2059 年）和末期（2080-2099 年）的积雪变化。模拟是在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下对 1950-2099 年期间进行的。结果表明，该模型在代表当代（1986-2005）积雪天数（SCD）和雪水当量（SWE）的空间分布方面表现良好。然而，观察和模拟之间发现了一些差异。在 RCP4.5 情景下，21 世纪中叶和末期的 SCD 分别缩短 10-20 天和 20-40 天。而模拟的 SWE 在青藏高原 (TP) 的大部分地区降低了 0.1–10 毫米。另一方面，东北地区中期和末期SWE的空间分布发生逆转。此外，与RCP4.5情景的变化相比，RCP8.5情景下的中期SCD减少了5-20天，并且最终下降幅度更大。在 RCP8.5 情景下，中期除中国东北地区外，大部分地区的 SWE 下降了 0.1-2.5 毫米。 SCD和SWE变化的大中心总是位于TP之上。 2006年至2099年，青藏高原和中国的SCD和SWE的区域平均值均呈下降趋势，青藏高原的变化比中国整体的变化更为显着。 RCP8.5场景下，变化相比RCP4.5下有所增强。
Snow cover changes in the middle (2040–2059) and end (2080–2099) of the twenty-first century over China were investigated with a regional climate model, nested within the global model BCC_CSM1.1. The simulations had been conducted for the period of 1950–2099 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results show that the model perform well in representing contemporary (1986–2005) spatial distributions of snow cover days (SCDs) and snow water equivalent (SWE). However, some differences between observation and simulation were detected. Under the RCP4.5 scenarios, SCDs are shortened by 10–20 and 20–40 days during the middle and end of the twenty-first century, respectively. Whereas simulated SWE is lowered by 0.1–10 mm in most areas over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). On the other hand, the spatial distributions of SWE are reversed between the middle and end terms in the northeast China. Furthermore, compared with the changes of RCP4.5 scenario, SCDs are reduced by 5–20 days in the middle period under RCP8.5 scenario with even larger decreasing amplitude in the end term. SWE was lowered by 0.1–2.5 mm in most areas except the northeast of China in middle term under RCP8.5 scenario. The great center of SCDs and SWE changes are always located over TP. The regional mean of SCDs and SWE for the TP and for China display a declining trend from 2006 to 2099 with more pronounced changes in the TP than in China as a whole. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes are enhanced compared to those under RCP4.5.