Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice‐Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations
Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice‐Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl085397
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发表时间：
2020-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Yu‐Chiao Liang;Young‐Oh Kwon;C. Frankignoul;G. Danabasoglu;S. Yeager;A. Cherchi;Yongqi Gao;G. Gastineau;R. Ghosh;D. Matei;J. Mecking;D. Peano;L. Suo;T. Tian
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文献类型：
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作者：
Yu‐Chiao Liang;Young‐Oh Kwon;C. Frankignoul;G. Danabasoglu;S. Yeager;A. Cherchi;Yongqi Gao;G. Gastineau;R. Ghosh;D. Matei;J. Mecking;D. Peano;L. Suo;T. Tian
一组协调的大型集合大气模拟用于研究1979-2014年期间观测到的北极海冰驱动变率（SIDV）对大气环流的影响。实验协议允许分离北极SIDV从内部的变化和变化驱动的其他强迫，包括海面温度和温室气体。SIDV的地理模式在七个参与模型中是一致的，但其大小强烈依赖于集合规模。基于130个成员，冬季SIDV为北极平均海平面压力约0.18 hPa 2（总方差的约1.5%），年际和更长时间尺度的地面气温约0.35 K2（约21%）。结果表明，超过100（40）个成员需要从其他组件分离的动力学（化学）变量的北极SIDV，和集合规模不足总是导致高估的SIDV。然而，SIDV是0.75-1.5倍，由其他强迫驱动的变化在北方欧亚大陆和北极。
A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere‐only simulations is used to investigate the impacts of observed Arctic sea ice‐driven variability (SIDV) on the atmospheric circulation during 1979–2014. The experimental protocol permits separating Arctic SIDV from internal variability and variability driven by other forcings including sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. The geographic pattern of SIDV is consistent across seven participating models, but its magnitude strongly depends on ensemble size. Based on 130 members, winter SIDV is ~0.18 hPa2 for Arctic‐averaged sea level pressure (~1.5% of the total variance), and ~0.35 K2 for surface air temperature (~21%) at interannual and longer timescales. The results suggest that more than 100 (40) members are needed to separate Arctic SIDV from other components for dynamical (thermodynamical) variables, and insufficient ensemble size always leads to overestimation of SIDV. Nevertheless, SIDV is 0.75–1.5 times as large as the variability driven by other forcings over northern Eurasia and Arctic.