Metrics for the Evaluation of the Southern Ocean in Coupled Climate Models and Earth System Models
Metrics for the Evaluation of the Southern Ocean in Coupled Climate Models and Earth System Models
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DOI：
10.1002/2017jc013461
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发表时间：
2018-05-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Wanninkhof, Rik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Russell, Joellen L.;Kamenkovich, Igor;Wanninkhof, Rik
南大洋是全球气候和全球碳循环的中心，也是气候应对日益增加的大气温室气体水平的中心，因为它为全球海洋的很大一部分提供通风。然而，全球耦合气候模型和地球系统模型在对南大洋及其在当前人类活动趋势中的作用和反应的模拟方面存在很大差异。由于该区域复杂的水团结构和动力学，南大洋的碳和热量吸收取决于风、涡旋、混合、浮力通量和地形的组合。基于观测的衡量标准对于识别过程和机制以及验证和比较气候和地球系统模型至关重要。新的观测和理解使得在建立南大洋基于观测的数据/模型指标方面取得了进展。这里提供的指标提供了一种方法来评估与最佳可用观测和观测产品相关的多个模拟。根据这些指标执行得更好的气候模型也能更好地模拟南大洋对热量和碳的吸收。这份报告并不是严格意义上的相互比较，而是对关键指标的提炼，这些指标可以可靠地量化模拟相对于观察到的或至少是可观察到的数量的“准确性”。一个总体目标是建议标准化基于观测的基准，模型界应力求达到这些基准的标准化，以减少气候预测中的不确定性，特别是与海洋热量和碳吸收有关的不确定性。
The Southern Ocean is central to the global climate and the global carbon cycle, and to the climate's response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, as it ventilates a large fraction of the global ocean volume. Global coupled climate models and earth system models, however, vary widely in their simulations of the Southern Ocean and its role in, and response to, the ongoing anthropogenic trend. Due to the region's complex water-mass structure and dynamics, Southern Ocean carbon and heat uptake depend on a combination of winds, eddies, mixing, buoyancy fluxes, and topography. Observationally based metrics are critical for discerning processes and mechanisms, and for validating and comparing climate and earth system models. New observations and understanding have allowed for progress in the creation of observationally based data/model metrics for the Southern Ocean. Metrics presented here provide a means to assess multiple simulations relative to the best available observations and observational products. Climate models that perform better according to these metrics also better simulate the uptake of heat and carbon by the Southern Ocean. This report is not strictly an intercomparison, but rather a distillation of key metrics that can reliably quantify the "accuracy" of a simulation against observed, or at least observable, quantities. One overall goal is to recommend standardization of observationally based benchmarks that the modeling community should aspire to meet in order to reduce uncertainties in climate projections, and especially uncertainties related to oceanic heat and carbon uptake.Plain Language Summary Observationally based metrics are essential for the standardized evaluation of climate and earth system models, and for reducing the uncertainty associated with future projections by those models.