Prediction of asthma in young adults using childhood characteristics: Development of a prediction rule
Prediction of asthma in young adults using childhood characteristics: Development of a prediction rule
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclinepi.2006.02.011
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发表时间：
2006-11-01
影响因子：
7.2
通讯作者：
Rovers, Maroeska M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Balemans, Walter A. F.;van der Ent, Cornelis K.;Rovers, Maroeska M.
Objective: To develop an easily applicable prediction rule for asthma in young adulthood using childhood characteristics.Methods: A total of 1,055 out of 1,328 members of a Dutch birth cohort were followed from 2 to 21 years of age. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the predictive value of childhood characteristics on asthma at 21 years of age. A prognostic function was developed, and the area under the receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the predictive ability of the prognostic models.Results: Of the 693 responding subjects, 86 (12%) were diagnosed with asthma. Independent prognostic factors at ages 2 and 4 years were female gender (odds ratios (OR) 1.9 and 2.1; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.2-3.2 and 1.3-2.5), smoking mother (OR 1.6 and 1.6; Cl 1.0-2.7 and 1.0-2.6), lower respiratory tract illness (OR 1.9 and 2.4; Cl 1.0-3.6 and 1.4-4.0), and atopic parents (OR 2.1 and 1.9; Cl 1.3-3.4 and 1.2-3.1). The predictive power of both models was poor; area under ROC curve was 0.66 and 0.68, respectively.Conclusion: Asthma in young adulthood could not be predicted satisfactorily based on childhood characteristics. Nevertheless, we propose that this method is further tested as a tool to predict development of asthma. (C) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
