Interpreting climate data visualisations to inform adaptation decisions
Interpreting climate data visualisations to inform adaptation decisions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.crm.2015.06.007
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Jack, Christopher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Daron, Joseph D.;Lorenz, Susanne;Jack, Christopher
适当开发用于交流气候数据的图形可视化对于提供气候服务以指导气候变化适应决策至关重要。然而，目前缺乏经验证据，特别是在非洲，以帮助气候信息提供者确定如何最好地传播和显示气候数据。为帮助解决这一问题，设计并广泛传播了一项主要针对非洲脆弱性、影响和适应社区的在线调查。该调查研究了气候数据的解释作为图形可视化的风格和信息内容的函数。结果表明，在构建可视化时所做的选择，如呈现百分位数信息与显示范围，显着影响解释。结果还表明，根据气候模型预测的可视化，解释未来气候变化可能性较高的受访者对他们的解释表示更大的信心。这些发现与非洲和世界其他地方的气候风险社区有关，并意味着将气候数据可视化的天真方法可能会导致误解和不合理的信任水平，并有可能误导适应和政策决策。皇冠版权所有（C）2015由Elsevier B.V.
The appropriate development of graphical visualisations to communicate climate data is fundamental to the provision of climate services to guide climate change adaptation decisions. However, at present there is a lack of empirical evidence, particularly in Africa, to help climate information providers determine how best to communicate and display climate data. To help address this issue, an online survey, primarily targeted at the African vulnerability, impacts and adaptation community, was designed and disseminated widely. The survey examines the interpretation of climate data as a function of the style and information content of graphical visualisations. It is shown that choices made when constructing the visualisations, such as presenting percentile information versus showing the range, significantly impact on interpretation. Results also show that respondents who interpret a higher likelihood of future changes to climate, based on the visualisation of climate model projections, express greater confidence in their interpretations. The findings have relevance to the climate risk community in Africa and elsewhere across the world, and imply that a naive approach to visualising climate data risks misinterpretation and unjustified levels of trust, with the potential to misinform adaptation and policy decisions. Crown Copyright (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.